Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Jäger, Felix; Schwaab, Jonas; Quilcaille, Yann; Windisch, Michael G.; Doelman, Jonathan; Frank, Stefan; Gusti, Mykola; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey; Müller, Christoph; Narayan, Kanishka Balu; Padrón, Ryan Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; van Vuuren, Detlef; Wögerer, Michael; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

doi:10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024

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学術論文

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Authors

Jäger, Felix
External Organizations;

Schwaab, Jonas
External Organizations;

Quilcaille, Yann
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/michael.windisch

Windisch, Michael G.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Doelman, Jonathan
External Organizations;

Frank, Stefan
External Organizations;

Gusti, Mykola
External Organizations;

Havlik, Petr
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Narayan, Kanishka Balu
External Organizations;

Padrón, Ryan Sebastian
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

van Vuuren, Detlef
External Organizations;

Wögerer, Michael
External Organizations;

Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle
External Organizations;

URL

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11068957
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esd-15-1055-2024.pdf
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引用

Jäger, F., Schwaab, J., Quilcaille, Y., Windisch, M. G., Doelman, J., Frank, S., Gusti, M., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Lessa Derci Augustynczik, A., Müller, C., Narayan, K. B., Padrón, R. S., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Wögerer, M., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2024). Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways. Earth System Dynamics, 15(4), 1055-1071. doi:10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30151

要旨

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.