Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation 
strategies

Vicente‐Serrano, Sergio M.; Juez, Carmelo; Potopová, Vera; Boincean, Boris; Murphy, Conor; Domínguez‐Castro, Fernando; Eklundh, Lars; Peña‐Angulo, Dhais; Noguera, Ivan; Jin, Hongxiao; Conradt, Tobias; Garcia‐Herrera, Ricardo; Garrido‐Perez, Jose Manuel; Barriopedro, David; Gutiérrez, Jose M.; Iturbide, Maialen; Lorenzo‐Lacruz, Jorge; Kenawy, Ahmed El

doi:10.1111/nyas.15201

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学術論文

Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

Authors

Vicente‐Serrano, Sergio M.
External Organizations;

Juez, Carmelo
External Organizations;

Potopová, Vera
External Organizations;

Boincean, Boris
External Organizations;

Murphy, Conor
External Organizations;

Domínguez‐Castro, Fernando
External Organizations;

Eklundh, Lars
External Organizations;

Peña‐Angulo, Dhais
External Organizations;

Noguera, Ivan
External Organizations;

Jin, Hongxiao
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/conradt

Conradt, Tobias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Garcia‐Herrera, Ricardo
External Organizations;

Garrido‐Perez, Jose Manuel
External Organizations;

Barriopedro, David
External Organizations;

Gutiérrez, Jose M.
External Organizations;

Iturbide, Maialen
External Organizations;

Lorenzo‐Lacruz, Jorge
External Organizations;

Kenawy, Ahmed El
External Organizations;

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2024_07-31_Conradt.pdf
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引用

Vicente‐Serrano, S. M., Juez, C., Potopová, V., Boincean, B., Murphy, C., Domínguez‐Castro, F., Eklundh, L., Peña‐Angulo, D., Noguera, I., Jin, H., Conradt, T., Garcia‐Herrera, R., Garrido‐Perez, J. M., Barriopedro, D., Gutiérrez, J. M., Iturbide, M., Lorenzo‐Lacruz, J., & Kenawy, A. E. (2024). Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1538(1), 144-161. doi:10.1111/nyas.15201.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30234

要旨

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.