Abstract
Overconsumption, diets low in fruits, vegetables, wholegrains, pulses, fibre, calcium, iron and beneficial fatty acids and diets high in processed meats, sugar and salt are responsible for approximately 33% of preventable disease and death in adults globally (Afshin et al. 2019), as discussed in the chapter by Shireen Kassam. Other chapters highlight that current diets high in animal products also have a large environmental footprint, with livestock responsible for approximately 18% of global CO2-equivalent annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Steinfeld et al. 2006; Xu et al. 2021), 50% of annual tropical deforestation (Pendrill et al. 2019) and 33% of global reactive nitrogen pollution to air, soil and water (Uwizeye et al. 2020).
Human and natural capital, viewed in classical economics as labour and natural resources, underpin the human economy (TEEB 2018). The disease burden from current diets degrades human capital over the near and medium terms. GHG emissions, nitrogen pollution and habitat loss pose a risk to productivity through heat stress, air pollution and damaging the natural resource base in the near to long term. From the scale of the impact of current food system activities on human and natural capital in the near and long term, it is natural to ask what economic damages and risks are posed by current diets and their production. The United Nations (UN) system of national accounts does not subtract the future liability of damage to human and natural capital from the value-add of sectors and gross product (Dasgupta 2015). Any future losses to the national economy, or the economy of other nations, from this year’s food system activities are unaccounted for. If the trends of current diets and production methods continue, then the future losses accumulate year on year as a hidden deficit. This potential puts at risk global economic development and sustainable growth.
Economic reports of the future and unaccounted costs of climate change such as the Stern report (Stern 2007) mainstreamed carbon taxes, emissions trading and other policy instruments. However, there have been few similar, or similarly influential, investigations across the damages associated to food production and consumption. In this chapter we discuss the results of recent studies by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) to estimate the unaccounted global and regional costs of current diets and by the Food System Economic Commission (FSEC) to estimate the potential economic benefits from avoiding these costs under dietary change.
