Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event 
catalogue for 1950–2020

Paprotny, Dominik; Rhein, Belinda; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Terefenko, Paweł; Dottori, Francesco; Treu, Simon; Śledziowski, Jakub; Feyen, Luc; Kreibich, Heidi

doi:10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024

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学術論文

Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue for 1950–2020

Authors

/persons/resource/Dominik.Paprotny

Paprotny, Dominik
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rhein, Belinda
External Organizations;

Vousdoukas, Michalis I.
External Organizations;

Terefenko, Paweł
External Organizations;

Dottori, Francesco
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Simon.Treu

Treu, Simon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Śledziowski, Jakub
External Organizations;

Feyen, Luc
External Organizations;

Kreibich, Heidi
External Organizations;

URL

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10678820
(付録資料)

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12635205
(付録資料)

フルテキスト (公開)

hess-28-3983-2024.pdf
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引用

Paprotny, D., Rhein, B., Vousdoukas, M. I., Terefenko, P., Dottori, F., Treu, S., Śledziowski, J., Feyen, L., & Kreibich, H. (2024). Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue for 1950–2020. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 28(17), 3983-4010. doi:10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30264

要旨

Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors including climate variation, demographic dynamics, economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction and flood risk reduction measures. The attribution of those drivers through the use of counterfactual scenarios of hazard, exposure or vulnerability first requires a good representation of historical events, including their location, their intensity and the factual circumstances in which they occurred. Here, we develop a chain of models that is capable of recreating riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe between 1950 and 2020 that had a potential to cause significant socioeconomic impacts. This factual catalogue of almost 15 000 such events was scrutinized with historical records of flood impacts. We found that at least 10 % of them led to significant socioeconomic impacts (including fatalities) according to available sources. The model chain was able to capture events responsible for 96 % of known impacts contained in the Historical Analysis of Natural Hazards in Europe (HANZE) flood impact database in terms of persons affected and economic losses and for 81 % of fatalities. The dataset enables the study of the drivers of vulnerability and flood adaptation due to a large sample of events with historical impact data. The model chain can be further used to generate counterfactual events, especially those related to climate change and human influence on catchments.