Pronounced spatial disparity of projected heatwave changes linked to heat domes 
and land-atmosphere coupling

Cai, Fenying; Liu, Caihong; Gerten, Dieter; Yang, Song; Zhang, Tuantuan; Lin, Shuheng; Kurths, Jürgen

doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00779-y

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学術論文

Pronounced spatial disparity of projected heatwave changes linked to heat domes and land-atmosphere coupling

Authors

/persons/resource/fenying.cai

Cai, Fenying
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Liu, Caihong
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Dieter.Gerten

Gerten, Dieter
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Yang, Song
External Organizations;

Zhang, Tuantuan
External Organizations;

Lin, Shuheng
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Juergen.Kurths

Kurths, Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

URL

https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=overview
(付録資料)

https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/
(付録資料)

フルテキスト (公開)

Cai_2024_s41612-024-00779-y.pdf
(出版社版), 2MB

付随資料 (公開)

There is no public supplementary material available

引用

Cai, F., Liu, C., Gerten, D., Yang, S., Zhang, T., Lin, S., & Kurths, J. (2024). Pronounced spatial disparity of projected heatwave changes linked to heat domes and land-atmosphere coupling. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7:. doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00779-y.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30599

要旨

Heatwaves are projected to substantially increase at a global scale, exacerbating worldwide heat-related risks in the future. However, understanding future heterogeneous heatwave changes and their origins remains challenging. By analyzing the output of various climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we found pronounced spatial disparity of projected heatwave increases in the Northern Hemisphere, even outstretching seven-fold inter-regional differences in extreme heatwave occurrences, attributed primarily to future changes in heat-dome-like circulations and soil moisture–temperature coupling. Specifically, we found that by the end of the 21st century, the modulations of combined Pacific El Niño and positive Pacific Meridional Mode on magnified heat-dome-like circulations would be translated into summertime hotspots over western Asia and western North America. Amplified soil moisture–temperature couplings then further aggravate the heatwave intensity over these two hotspots. This study provides support for formulating impact-based mitigation strategies and efficiently addressing the potential future risks of heatwaves.