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Abstract

The Chinese food system is increasingly strained by rising food demand and tightening resource and environmental constraints, posing major challenges to food security. This study combines a China-tailored agro-economic model (model of agricultural production and its impact on the environment for China [MAgPIE-China]) with ex post data envelopment analysis (DEA) to project total factor productivity (TFP) growth in China’s crop sector under diverse socioeconomic scenarios and to quantify joint effects of TFP growth and agricultural trade on resource and environmental outcomes. We find that TFP in the crop sector is projected to increase by 2050, with cumulative growth ranging from 26% to 42% across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) relative to 2020 levels. Enhanced TFP, together with demand-driven shifts in crop composition, is associated with lower methane emissions, whereas agricultural trade primarily mitigates cropland pressure in China and contributes to global resource-use efficiency gains. These findings provide insights for policies aimed at balancing food security, resource conservation, and environmental protection in China.