Climate refugia implications of warming and land-intensive mitigation under 
overshoot

Prütz, Ruben; Fuss, Sabine; Price, Jeff; Warren, Rachel; Forstenhäusler, Nicole; Wu, Yazhen; Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey; Wögerer, Michael; Krisztin, Tamás; Havlík, Petr; Kraxner, Florian; Frank, Stefan; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Doelman, Jonathan C; Daioglou, Vassilis; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae7b65

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Climate refugia implications of warming and land-intensive mitigation under overshoot

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/persons/resource/ruben.pruetz

Prütz, Ruben
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Sabine.Fuss

Fuss, Sabine
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Price, Jeff
External Organizations;

Warren, Rachel
External Organizations;

Forstenhäusler, Nicole
External Organizations;

Wu, Yazhen
External Organizations;

Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey
External Organizations;

Wögerer, Michael
External Organizations;

Krisztin, Tamás
External Organizations;

Havlík, Petr
External Organizations;

Kraxner, Florian
External Organizations;

Frank, Stefan
External Organizations;

Hasegawa, Tomoko
External Organizations;

Doelman, Jonathan C
External Organizations;

Daioglou, Vassilis
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rogelj, Joeri
External Organizations;

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Prütz_2026_Environ._Res._Lett._21_124024.pdf
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Prütz, R., Fuss, S., Price, J., Warren, R., Forstenhäusler, N., Wu, Y., Lessa Derci Augustynczik, A., Wögerer, M., Krisztin, T., Havlík, P., Kraxner, F., Frank, S., Hasegawa, T., Doelman, J. C., Daioglou, V., Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Rogelj, J. (2026): Climate refugia implications of warming and land-intensive mitigation under overshoot. - Environmental Research Letters, 21, 12, 124024.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae7b65

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34591

Zusammenfassung

Biodiversity loss is expected to escalate with every increment of global warming. Simultaneously, land-intensive climate change mitigation strategies, such as afforestation and bioenergy, may further compound biodiversity loss. So far, the magnitude of these two drivers has not been compared in the context of temperature overshoot, meaning the temporary exceedance of a targeted global warming limit. By combining spatial data on climate refugia (areas sheltering biodiversity from climate change), bioenergy cropland, and forestation for multiple cost-effective scenarios with varying levels of climate action and overshoot, we illustrate how both warming and mitigation affect today’s climate refugia across five integrated assessment models. Decisive climate action, compatible with limiting warming to 1.5 °C, reduces the combined loss of today’s climate refugia due to warming and mitigation-related land-use change by more than 50% compared to current climate policies, outweighing potentially negative implications of mitigation at the global level by limiting the magnitude and duration of warming above 1.5 °C. We observe notable differences across regions and the considered model frameworks. Overshoot implications strongly depend on the underlying biodiversity recovery assumptions.