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Abstract

Understanding causal relationships among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is crucial for developing comprehensive implementation strategies. However, knowledge gaps persist, particularly regarding how similar or different SDG relationships are across spatial scales, which is required to ensure consistent global, regional, and national priorities. To address this, this study employed Granger causality and Pearson correlation analysis to examine causal relationships among the SDGs at global, regional, and national scales from 2000 to 2022. Seven types of causal relationships were identified, including facilitating, inhibiting, and neutral effects, as well as bidirectional and unidirectional relationships. Our results reveal that neutral relationships are relatively prevalent across all scales, accounting for over 30.0% of SDG pairs. This indicates that many SDGs remain isolated and exhibit limited mutual influence. Furthermore, >69.0% of SDG pairs at the national scale exhibit changes in causal relationships compared with those at the global and regional scales. In addition, no country shares the same three top priority SDGs in facilitating networks or inhibiting networks as those identified at the global scale or the regional scale, suggesting substantial differences in priority SDGs across spatial scales, especially in low-income countries. Overall, these results underscore the overlooked cross-scale governance challenge of reconciling divergent SDG priorities arising from shifting causality across spatial scales, which deserves greater attention in post-2030 agenda setting.