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Abstract

Climate hazards pose an accelerating threat to livestock systems across the Eurasian drylands, yet their magnitude, distribution, and future trajectory remain poorly understood in a comparative, cross-country context. This study quantifies the influence of drought and winter severity on interannual livestock population (POP) change in Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and Türkiye during 1971–2020 and projects the recurrence of climate hazards under future climate scenarios. Applying quantile regression to POP and gridded climate data, we demonstrate that climate hazards explain substantially more variance during decline years (the 10th percentile, τ = 0.10) than in median years (τ = 0.50)—62% vs. 22% (Mongolia), 37% vs. 18% (Kazakhstan), and 19% vs. 16% (Türkiye)—revealing tail-concentrated vulnerability. This shows a pronounced east–west gradient in climate sensitivity, driven by differences in pastoral dependence and institutional adaptive capacity. Although drought was the primary driver, the largest declines occurred during compound drought-winter events: Mongolia’s POP declined by 11.2 million head (23.4%) in 2010, Türkiye’s by 5.2 million (11.3%) in 2008–2009, and Kazakhstan’s by 0.69 million (2.7%) in 2011–2012, with small ruminants sustaining the highest proportional declines (52.2–94.0%). Future projections indicate that compound hazard recurrence will intensify after mid-century, particularly across Mongolia and Kazakhstan. These findings underscore the need for anticipatory, threshold-linked responses, including climate-indexed fodder credit, pre-winter insurance, and emergency mobility corridors, to sustain dryland livestock systems under accelerating climate change.