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  Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
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Kriegler, Elmar1, Autor              
Bauer, Nicolas1, Autor              
Popp, Alexander1, Autor              
Humpenöder, Florian1, Autor              
Leimbach, Marian1, Autor              
Strefler, Jessica1, Autor              
Baumstark, Lavinia1, Autor              
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, Autor              
Hilaire, Jérôme1, Autor              
Klein, David1, Autor              
Mouratiadou, Ioanna1, Autor              
Weindl, Isabelle1, Autor              
Bertram, Christoph1, Autor              
Dietrich, Jan Philipp1, Autor              
Luderer, Gunnar1, Autor              
Pehl, Michaja1, Autor              
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, Autor              
Piontek, Franziska1, Autor              
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, Autor              
Biewald, Anne1, Autor              
Bonsch, Markus1, Autor              Giannousakis, Anastasis1, Autor              Kreidenweis, Ulrich1, Autor              Müller, Christoph1, Autor              Rolinski, Susanne1, Autor              Schultes, Anselm1, Autor              Schwanitz, Jana1, Autor              Stevanović, Miodrag1, Autor              Calvin, Katherine2, AutorEmmerling, Johannes2, AutorFujimori, Shinichiro2, AutorEdenhofer, Ottmar1, Autor               mehr..
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.

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 Datum: 2017
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7239
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: MAgPIE
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Energy Systems
Working Group: Macroeconomic modeling of climate change mitigation and impacts
Working Group: Research Software Engineering for Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Global Environmental Change
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 42 Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 297 - 315 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals193