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  Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
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 Creators:
Kriegler, Elmar1, Author              
Bauer, Nicolas1, Author              
Popp, Alexander1, Author              
Humpenöder, Florian1, Author              
Leimbach, Marian1, Author              
Strefler, Jessica1, Author              
Baumstark, Lavinia1, Author              
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, Author              
Hilaire, Jérôme1, Author              
Klein, David1, Author              
Mouratiadou, Ioanna1, Author              
Weindl, Isabelle1, Author              
Bertram, Christoph1, Author              
Dietrich, Jan Philipp1, Author              
Luderer, Gunnar1, Author              
Pehl, Michaja1, Author              
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, Author              
Piontek, Franziska1, Author              
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, Author              
Biewald, Anne1, Author              
Bonsch, Markus1, Author              Giannousakis, Anastasis1, Author              Kreidenweis, Ulrich1, Author              Müller, Christoph1, Author              Rolinski, Susanne1, Author              Schultes, Anselm1, Author              Schwanitz, Jana1, Author              Stevanović, Miodrag1, Author              Calvin, Katherine2, AuthorEmmerling, Johannes2, AuthorFujimori, Shinichiro2, AuthorEdenhofer, Ottmar1, Author               more..
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7239
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: MAgPIE
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Energy Systems
Working Group: Macroeconomic modeling of climate change mitigation and impacts
Working Group: Research Software Engineering for Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Global Environmental Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 42 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 297 - 315 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals193