English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide - A synthesis

Krysanova, V., Vetter, T., Eisner, S., Huang, S., Pechlivanidis, I., Strauch, M., Gelfan, A., Kumar, R., Aich, V., Arheimer, B., Chamorro, A., Griensven, A. v., Kundu, D., Lobanova, A., Mishra, V., Plötner, S., Reinhardt, J., Seidou, O., Wang, X., Wortmann, M., Zeng, X., Hattermann, F. F. (2017): Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide - A synthesis. - Environmental Research Letters, 12, 10, 105002.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
7712oa.pdf (Publisher version), 3MB
Name:
7712oa.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Krysanova, Valentina1, Author              
Vetter, Tobias1, Author              
Eisner, S.2, Author
Huang, Shaochun1, Author              
Pechlivanidis, I.2, Author
Strauch, M.2, Author
Gelfan, A.2, Author
Kumar, R.2, Author
Aich, Valentin1, Author              
Arheimer, B.2, Author
Chamorro, A.2, Author
Griensven, A. van2, Author
Kundu, D.2, Author
Lobanova, Anastasia1, Author              
Mishra, V.2, Author
Plötner, S.2, Author
Reinhardt, Julia1, Author              
Seidou, O.2, Author
Wang, X.2, Author
Wortmann, Michel1, Author              
Zeng, X.2, AuthorHattermann, Fred Fokko1, Author               more..
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty were quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration and validation was done using WATCH climate data for the period 1971–2000. The results, evaluated with 14 criteria, are mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate change impacts were analyzed using projections from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways. Trends in the period 2070–2099 in relation to the reference period 1975–2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q 10 and Q 90, as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: the Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q 10 in the MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for the Rhine, Ganges and Upper Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for the Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall average fractions of uncertainty for the annual mean flow projections in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins were 57% for GCMs, 27% for RCPs, and 16% for hydrological models.

Details

show
hide
Language(s):
 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7712
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: SWIM
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 12 (10) Sequence Number: 105002 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326