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  Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal

Strefler, J., Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Giannousakis, A., Edenhofer, O. (2021): Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal. - Nature Communications, 12, 2264.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22211-2

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25351 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25351_2
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Strefler, Jessica1, Author              
Kriegler, Elmar1, Author              
Bauer, Nicolas1, Author              
Luderer, Gunnar1, Author              
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, Author              
Giannousakis, Anastasis1, Author              
Edenhofer, Ottmar1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The large majority of climate change mitigation scenarios that hold warming below 2 °C show high deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), resulting in a peak-and-decline behavior in global temperature. This is driven by the assumption of an exponentially increasing carbon price trajectory which is perceived to be economically optimal for meeting a carbon budget. However, this optimality relies on the assumption that a finite carbon budget associated with a temperature target is filled up steadily over time. The availability of net carbon removals invalidates this assumption and therefore a different carbon price trajectory should be chosen. We show how the optimal carbon price path for remaining well below 2 °C limits CDR demand and analyze requirements for constructing alternatives, which may be easier to implement in reality. We show that warming can be held at well below 2 °C at much lower long-term economic effort and lower CDR deployment and therefore lower risks if carbon prices are high enough in the beginning to ensure target compliance, but increase at a lower rate after carbon neutrality has been reached.

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 Dates: 2021-02-242021-04-152021-04-15
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: Director Edenhofer
Research topic keyword: Carbon Pricing
Research topic keyword: CO2 Removal
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Economics
Model / method: REMIND
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22211-2
OATYPE: Gold - DEAL Springer Nature
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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 12 Sequence Number: 2264 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Springer Nature