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  Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

Bertram, C., Riahi, K., Hilaire, J., Bosetti, V., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Malik, A., Pupo Nogueira, L., van der Zwaan, B., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D. P., Weitzel, M., Dalla Longa, F., de Boer, H.-S., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Harmsen, M., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P. N., Kriegler, E., Krey, V., Paroussos, L., Saygin, D., Vrontisi, Z., Luderer, G. (2021): Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals. - Environmental Research Letters, 16, 7, 074020.

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Bertram, Christoph1, Author              
Riahi, Keywan2, Author
Hilaire, Jérôme1, Author              
Bosetti, Valentina2, Author
Drouet, Laurent2, Author
Fricko, Oliver2, Author
Malik, Aman1, Author              
Pupo Nogueira, Larissa2, Author
van der Zwaan, Bob2, Author
van Ruijven, Bas2, Author
van Vuuren, Detlef P.2, Author
Weitzel, Matthias2, Author
Dalla Longa, Francesco2, Author
de Boer, Harmen-Sytze2, Author
Emmerling, Johannes2, Author
Fosse, Florian2, Author
Fragkiadakis, Kostas2, Author
Harmsen, Mathijs2, Author
Keramidas, Kimon2, Author
Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo2, Author
Kriegler, Elmar1, Author              Krey, Volker2, AuthorParoussos, Leonidas2, AuthorSaygin, Deger2, AuthorVrontisi, Zoi2, AuthorLuderer, Gunnar1, Author               more..
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              


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 Abstract: The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C, it also calls for "making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions". Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models (IAMs). This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2°C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2°C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5°C in all models, and 2°C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2°C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets.


 Dates: 2021-06-092021-06-092021-07-15
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac09ae
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: REMIND
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
MDB-ID: yes - 3265
 Degree: -



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Source 1

Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 16 (7) Sequence Number: 074020 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing