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  Climate Risk Analysis for Identifying and Weighing Adaptation Strategies in Burkina Faso‘s Agricultural Sector

Röhrig, F., Gloy, N., von Loeben, S. C., Gornott, C., Arumugam, P., Aschenbrenner, P., Baek, H.-R.-L., Bado, I., Chemura, A., Habtemariam, L. T., Kaufmann, J., Koch, H., Laudien, R., Liersch, S., Lüttringhaus, A. S., Murken, L., Neya, O., Noleppa, S., Ostberg, S., Sanfo, S., Schauberger, B., Shukla, R., Tomalka, J., Wesch, S., Wortmann, M. (2021): Climate Risk Analysis for Identifying and Weighing Adaptation Strategies in Burkina Faso‘s Agricultural Sector, Potsdam : A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), 149 p.
https://doi.org/10.48485/pik.2022.001

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Genre: Bericht
Andere : Analyse des risques climatiques pour l’identification et la pondération des stratégies d’adaptation dans le secteur agricole du Burkina Faso

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Urheber

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 Urheber:
Röhrig, Felicitas1, Autor              
Gloy, Nele1, Autor              
von Loeben, Sophie Charlotte1, Autor              
Gornott, Christoph1, Autor              
Arumugam, Ponraj1, Autor              
Aschenbrenner, Paula1, Autor              
Baek, Hye-Rin Lea1, Autor              
Bado, I.2, Autor
Chemura, Abel1, Autor              
Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis1, Autor              
Kaufmann, J.2, Autor
Koch, Hagen1, Autor              
Laudien, Rahel1, Autor              
Liersch, Stefan1, Autor              
Lüttringhaus, Anna Sophia1, Autor              
Murken, Lisa1, Autor              
Neya, O.2, Autor
Noleppa, S.2, Autor
Ostberg, Sebastian1, Autor              
Sanfo, S.2, Autor
Schauberger, Bernhard1, Autor              Shukla, Roopam1, Autor              Tomalka, Julia1, Autor              Wesch, Stefanie1, Autor              Wortmann, Michel1, Autor               mehr..
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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Schlagwörter: climate change adaptation, climate impacts, climate risk, agriculture, livestock, Burkina Faso, biophysical modelling, cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria assessment
 Zusammenfassung: Burkina Faso has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Burkina Faso. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydro-logical modelling on water availability changes, modelling and comparison of future yields of four widely used crops (maize, sorghum, millet and cowpeas) and an assessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, four different adapta-tion strategies ((1) Integrated soil fertility ma-nagement (ISFM), (2) irrigation, (3) improved seeds and (4) climate information services (CIS)) suggested and selected by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-)effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder work-shops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is on the rise and projected to increase further by 0.6°C (2030) up to 1.1°C (2090) under SSP1-RCP2.6 and by 0.5°C (2030) up to 3.6°C (2090) under SSP3-RCP7.0 in reference to 2004, dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions. Some un-certainty exists for annual precipitation projections, with slight increases until 2050 followed by a slight decrease under SSP1-RCP2.6 and continuous increase under SSP3-RCP7.0 with high year-to-year variability. Projected impacts of cli-mate change on yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Some regions in the north show increasing yields (up to +30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and up to +20% in SSP3-RCP7.0), while few regions in the south present decreasing yields (down to -30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and down to -20% in SSP3-RCP7.0). Crop models show that the areas suitable for cowpeas will decrease in Burkina Faso under future climate change conditions while the suitability for maize, millet and sorghum will remain stable. Moreover, the potential to produce multiple crops will become more and more difficult, which limits farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, can have a high potential for risk mitigation and entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended for smallholder farmers, resulting in very positive effects for societies and environment. Irrigation and improved seeds have a high potential to improve livelihoods especially in Northern Burkina Faso, but are also complex, costly and support-intensive adaptation strategies. Lastly, CIS can support farmers to make informed decisions and thereby reduce the impact of climate risks. Generally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can entail additional benefits and active stakeholder engagement as well as participatory approaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and long-term sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch, fra - Französisch
 Datum: 2021
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 149
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: Potsdam : A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: -
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.48485/pik.2022.001
MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Adaptation in Agricultural Systems
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Regional keyword: Africa
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
 Art des Abschluß: -

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