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  Simulation of flood hazard and risk in the Danube basin with the Future Danube Model

Hattermann, F. F., Wortmann, M., Liersch, S., Toumi, R., Sparks, N., Genillard, C., Schröter, K., Steinhausen, M., Gyalai-Korpos, M., Máté, K., Hayes, B., Rivas López, M. d. R., Racz, T., Nielsen, M. R., Kaspersen, P. S., Drews, M. (2018): Simulation of flood hazard and risk in the Danube basin with the Future Danube Model. - Climate Services, 12, 14-26.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2018.07.001

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 Creators:
Hattermann, Fred Fokko1, Author              
Wortmann, Michel1, Author              
Liersch, Stefan1, Author              
Toumi, R.2, Author
Sparks, N.2, Author
Genillard, C.2, Author
Schröter, K.2, Author
Steinhausen, M.2, Author
Gyalai-Korpos, M.2, Author
Máté, K.2, Author
Hayes, B.2, Author
Rivas López, María del Rocío1, Author              
Racz, T.2, Author
Nielsen, M. R.2, Author
Kaspersen, P. S.2, Author
Drews, M.2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Major river and flash flood events have accumulated in Central and Eastern Europe over the last decade reminding the public as well as the insurance sector that climate related risks are likely to become even more damaging and prevalent as climate patterns change. However, information about current and future hydro-climatic extremes is often not available. The Future Danube Model (FDM) is an end-user driven multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region that has been developed to provide climate services related to perils such as heavy precipitation, heat waves, floods, and droughts under recent and scenario conditions. As a result, it provides spatially consistent information on extreme events and natural resources throughout the entire Danube catchment. It can be used to quantify climate risks, to support the implementation of the EU framework directives, for climate informed urban and land use planning, water resources management, and for climate proofing of large scale infrastructural planning including cost benefit analysis. The model suite consists of five individual and exchangeable modules: a weather and climate module, a hydrological module, a risk module, an adaptation module, and a web-based visualization module. They are linked in such a way that output from one module can either be used standalone or fed into subsequent modules. The utility of the tool has been tested by experts and stakeholders. The results show that more and more intense hydrological extremes are likely to occur under climate scenario conditions, e.g. higher order floods may occur more frequently.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2018.07.001
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 8178
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Model / method: SWIM
Regional keyword: Asia
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
 Degree: -

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Title: Climate Services
Source Genre: Journal, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 12 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 14 - 26 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/181112