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  Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
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Kriegler, Elmar1, Autor           
Bauer, Nicolas1, Autor           
Popp, Alexander1, Autor                 
Humpenöder, Florian1, Autor                 
Leimbach, Marian1, Autor           
Strefler, Jessica1, Autor           
Baumstark, Lavinia1, Autor           
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, Autor                 
Hilaire, Jérôme1, Autor           
Klein, David1, Autor           
Mouratiadou, Ioanna1, Autor           
Weindl, Isabelle1, Autor                 
Bertram, Christoph1, Autor           
Dietrich, Jan Philipp1, Autor                 
Luderer, Gunnar1, Autor           
Pehl, Michaja1, Autor           
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, Autor                 
Piontek, Franziska1, Autor           
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, Autor                 
Biewald, Anne1, Autor           
Bonsch, Markus1, Autor           Giannousakis, Anastasis1, Autor           Kreidenweis, Ulrich1, Autor           Müller, Christoph1, Autor                 Rolinski, Susanne1, Autor           Schultes, Anselm1, Autor           Schwanitz, Jana1, Autor           Stevanović, Miodrag1, Autor                 Calvin, Katherine2, AutorEmmerling, Johannes2, AutorFujimori, Shinichiro2, AutorEdenhofer, Ottmar1, Autor                  mehr..
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.

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 Datum: 2017
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7239
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: MAgPIE
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Energy Systems
Working Group: Macroeconomic modeling of climate change mitigation and impacts
Working Group: Research Software Engineering for Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
PIKDOMAIN: RD5 - Climate Economics and Policy - MCC Berlin
Organisational keyword: RD5 - Climate Economics and Policy - MCC Berlin
Working Group: Evidence for Climate Solutions
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Global Environmental Change
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 42 Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 297 - 315 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals193