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  Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries

Gerten, D., Heck, V., Jägermeyr, J., Bodirsky, B. L., Fetzer, I., Jalava, M., Kummu, M., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Schaphoff, S., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020): Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries. - Nature Sustainability, 3, 3, 200-208.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1

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 Creators:
Gerten, Dieter1, Author              
Heck, Vera1, Author              
Jägermeyr, Jonas1, Author              
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, Author              
Fetzer, I.2, Author
Jalava, M.2, Author
Kummu, M.2, Author
Lucht, Wolfgang1, Author              
Rockström, Johan1, Author              
Schaphoff, Sibyll1, Author              
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water–nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes.

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 Dates: 2020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
PIKDOMAIN: Director Emeritus / Executive Staff / Science & Society
eDoc: 8710
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Sustainable Development
Model / method: LPJmL
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: Director Rockström
Organisational keyword: Director Emeritus Schellnhuber
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Sustainability
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 3 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 200 - 208 Identifier: Other: Springer Nature
Other: 2398-9629
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-sustainability
Publisher: Nature