Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary 
boundaries

Gerten, Dieter; Heck, Vera; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Fetzer, I.; Jalava, M.; Kummu, M.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rockström, Johan; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1

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学術論文

Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries

Authors

/persons/resource/Dieter.Gerten

Gerten, Dieter
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/vera.heck

Heck, Vera
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr, Jonas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Fetzer, I.
External Organizations;

Jalava, M.
External Organizations;

Kummu, M.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Wolfgang.Lucht

Lucht, Wolfgang
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/johan.rockstrom

Rockström, Johan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Sibyll.Schaphoff

Schaphoff, Sibyll
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/emdir

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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フルテキスト (公開)

23513oa.pdf
(ポストプリント), 3MB

付随資料 (公開)

23513_SI.pdf
(付録資料), 5MB

引用

Gerten, D., Heck, V., Jägermeyr, J., Bodirsky, B. L., Fetzer, I., Jalava, M., Kummu, M., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Schaphoff, S., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020). Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries. Nature Sustainability, 3(3), 200-208. doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23513

要旨

Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water–nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes.