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  Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions

Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Frank, S., Humpenöder, F., Bertram, C., Després, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Gusti, M., Harmsen, M., Keramidas, K., Ochi, Y., Oshiro, K., Rochedo, P., van Ruijven, B., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., Fosse, F., Havlik, P., Krey, V., Popp, A., Schaeffer, R., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K. (2021): Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions. - Nature Sustainability, 4, 12, 1052-1059.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w

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Hasegawa, Tomoko1, Author
Fujimori, Shinichiro1, Author
Frank, Stefan1, Author
Humpenöder, Florian2, Author              
Bertram, Christoph2, Author              
Després, Jacques1, Author
Drouet, Laurent1, Author
Emmerling, Johannes1, Author
Gusti, Mykola1, Author
Harmsen, Mathijs1, Author
Keramidas, Kimon1, Author
Ochi, Yuki1, Author
Oshiro, Ken1, Author
Rochedo, Pedro1, Author
van Ruijven, Bas1, Author
Cabardos, Anique-Marie1, Author
Deppermann, Andre1, Author
Fosse, Florian1, Author
Havlik, Petr1, Author
Krey, Volker1, Author
Popp, Alexander2, Author              Schaeffer, Roberto1, Authorvan Vuuren, Detlef1, AuthorRiahi, Keywan1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-08-162021-10-072021-12
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 8
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Open Source Software
Model / method: LPJmL
Model / method: MAgPIE
Model / method: REMIND
MDB-ID: yes - 3276
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Sustainability
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 4 (12) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1052 - 1059 Identifier: Publisher: Nature
Other: 2398-9629
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-sustainability