Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative 
emissions

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Frank, Stefan; Humpenöder, Florian; Bertram, Christoph; Després, Jacques; Drouet, Laurent; Emmerling, Johannes; Gusti, Mykola; Harmsen, Mathijs; Keramidas, Kimon; Ochi, Yuki; Oshiro, Ken; Rochedo, Pedro; van Ruijven, Bas; Cabardos, Anique-Marie; Deppermann, Andre; Fosse, Florian; Havlik, Petr; Krey, Volker; Popp, Alexander; Schaeffer, Roberto; van Vuuren, Detlef; Riahi, Keywan

doi:10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w

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Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions

Authors

Hasegawa, Tomoko
External Organizations;

Fujimori, Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Frank, Stefan
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Bertram

Bertram, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Després, Jacques
External Organizations;

Drouet, Laurent
External Organizations;

Emmerling, Johannes
External Organizations;

Gusti, Mykola
External Organizations;

Harmsen, Mathijs
External Organizations;

Keramidas, Kimon
External Organizations;

Ochi, Yuki
External Organizations;

Oshiro, Ken
External Organizations;

Rochedo, Pedro
External Organizations;

van Ruijven, Bas
External Organizations;

Cabardos, Anique-Marie
External Organizations;

Deppermann, Andre
External Organizations;

Fosse, Florian
External Organizations;

Havlik, Petr
External Organizations;

Krey, Volker
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Schaeffer, Roberto
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef
External Organizations;

Riahi, Keywan
External Organizations;

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Citation

Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Frank, S., Humpenöder, F., Bertram, C., Després, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Gusti, M., Harmsen, M., Keramidas, K., Ochi, Y., Oshiro, K., Rochedo, P., van Ruijven, B., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., Fosse, F., Havlik, P., Krey, V., Popp, A., Schaeffer, R., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K. (2021): Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions. - Nature Sustainability, 4, 12, 1052-1059.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26174

Abstract

Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity.