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  Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Chrysafi, A., Virkki, V., Jalava, M., Sandström, V., Piipponen, J., Porkka, M., Lade, S., La Mere, K., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Scherer, L., Andersen, L., Bennett, E., Brauman, K., Cooper, G., De Palma, A., Döll, P., Downing, A., DuBois, T., Fetzer, I., Fulton, E., Gerten, D., Jaafar, H., Jägermeyr, J., Jaramillo, F., Jung, M., Kahiluoto, H., Lassaletta, L., Mackay, A., Mason-D'Croz, D., Mekonnen, M., Nash, K., Pastor, A., Ramankutty, N., Ridoutt, B., Siebert, S., Simmons, B., Staal, A., Sun, Z., Tobian, A., Usubiaga-Liano, A., van der Ent, R., van Soesbergen, A., Verburg, P., Wada, Y., Zipper, S., Kummu, M. (2022): Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation. - Nature Sustainability, 5, 830-842.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6

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 Creators:
Chrysafi, A.1, Author
Virkki, V.1, Author
Jalava, M.1, Author
Sandström, V.1, Author
Piipponen, J.1, Author
Porkka, M.1, Author
Lade, S.J.1, Author
La Mere, K.1, Author
Wang-Erlandsson, L.1, Author
Scherer, L.1, Author
Andersen, Lauren2, Author              
Bennett, E.1, Author
Brauman, K.A.1, Author
Cooper, G.S.1, Author
De Palma, A.1, Author
Döll, P.1, Author
Downing, A.S.1, Author
DuBois, T.C.1, Author
Fetzer, I.1, Author
Fulton, E.A.1, Author
Gerten, Dieter2, Author              Jaafar, H.1, AuthorJägermeyr, Jonas2, Author              Jaramillo, F.1, AuthorJung, M.1, AuthorKahiluoto, H.1, AuthorLassaletta, L.1, AuthorMackay, A.W.1, AuthorMason-D'Croz, D.1, AuthorMekonnen, M.M.1, AuthorNash, K.L.1, AuthorPastor, A.V.1, AuthorRamankutty, N.1, AuthorRidoutt, B.1, AuthorSiebert, S.1, AuthorSimmons, B.I.1, AuthorStaal, A.1, AuthorSun, Z.1, AuthorTobian, Arne2, Author              Usubiaga-Liano, A.1, Authorvan der Ent, R.J.1, Authorvan Soesbergen, A.1, AuthorVerburg, P.H.1, AuthorWada, Y.1, AuthorZipper, S.1, AuthorKummu, M.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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Free keywords: Safe Operating Space; Earth system processes; interactions; food production; expert elicitation
 Abstract: Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-06-302022-08-152022-10
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 15
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Research topic keyword: Biodiversity
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Forest
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Sustainable Development
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Qualitative Methods
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Sustainability
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 5 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 830 - 842 Identifier: Other: 2398-9629
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-sustainability
Publisher: Nature