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Abstract:
We investigate the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the extreme temperature and precipitation events in Central Asia (CA) during the last 60 years. We bias-adjust and downscale two Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) ensemble outputs, with natural (labelled as hist-nat, driven only by solar and volcanic forcing) and natural plus anthropogenic forcing (labelled as hist, driven by all-forcings), to 0.25∘×0.25∘ spatial resolution. Each ensemble contains six models from ISIMIP, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The presented downscaling methodology is necessary to create a reliable climate state for regional climate impact studies. Our analysis shows a higher risk of extreme heat events (factor 4 in signal-to-noise ratio) over large parts of CA due to anthropogenic influence. Furthermore, a higher likelihood of extreme precipitation over CA, especially over Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, can be attributed to anthropogenic forcing (over 100% changes in intensity and 20% in frequency). Given that these regions show a high risk of rainfall-triggered landslides and floods during historical times, we report that human-induced climate warming can contribute to extreme precipitation events over vulnerable areas of CA. Our high-resolution data set can be used in impact studies focusing on the attribution of extreme events in CA and is freely available to the scientific community.
