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  Quantifying the human cost of global warming

Lenton, T. M., Xu, C., Abrams, J. F., Ghadiali, A., Loriani, S., Sakschewski, B., Zimm, C., Ebi, K. L., Dunn, R. R., Svenning, J.-C., Scheffer, M. (2023): Quantifying the human cost of global warming. - Nature Sustainability, 6, 1237-1247.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6

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Datensatz-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28419 Versions-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28419_4
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 Urheber:
Lenton, Timothy M.1, Autor
Xu, Chi1, Autor
Abrams, Jesse F.1, Autor
Ghadiali, Ashish1, Autor
Loriani, Sina2, Autor              
Sakschewski, Boris2, Autor              
Zimm, Caroline1, Autor
Ebi, Kristie L.1, Autor
Dunn, Robert R.1, Autor
Svenning, Jens-Christian1, Autor
Scheffer, Marten1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’—defined as the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that climate change has already put ~9% of people (>600 million) outside this niche. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading to around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) of people outside the niche. Reducing global warming from 2.7 to 1.5 °C results in a ~5-fold decrease in the population exposed to unprecedented heat (mean annual temperature ≥29 °C). The lifetime emissions of ~3.5 global average citizens today (or ~1.2 average US citizens) expose one future person to unprecedented heat by end-of-century. That person comes from a place where emissions today are around half of the global average. These results highlight the need for more decisive policy action to limit the human costs and inequities of climate change.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2022-07-252023-05-012023-05-222023-10
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 23
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Inequality and Equity
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
MDB-ID: Entry suspended
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Nature Sustainability
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus
 Urheber:
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 6 Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 1237 - 1247 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-sustainability
Publisher: Nature