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  Enhancing streamflow forecasting for the Brazilian electricity sector: a strategy based on a hyper-multimodel

Souza Filho, F. A., Rocha, R. V., Estacio, A. B. S., Rolim, L. R. Z., Pontes Filho, J. D. A., Porto, V. C., Guimarães, S. O. (2023): Enhancing streamflow forecasting for the Brazilian electricity sector: a strategy based on a hyper-multimodel. - Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, 28, e45.
https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.282320230120

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 Creators:
Souza Filho, F. A.1, Author
Rocha, R. V.1, Author
Estacio, A. B. S.1, Author
Rolim, L. R. Z.1, Author
Pontes Filho, J. D. A.1, Author
Porto, V. C.1, Author
Guimarães, Sullyandro Oliveira2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Streamflow forecasting plays an important role in ensuring the reliable supply of electricity in countries heavily reliant on hydropower. This paper proposes a novel framework that integrates various hydrological models, climate models, and observational data to develop a comprehensive forecasting system. Three families of models were employed: seasonal forecasting climate models integrated with hydrological rainfall-runoff models; stochastic or machine learning models utilizing endogenous variables, and stochastic or machine learning models that consider exogenous variables. The hyper-multimodel framework could successfully increase the overall performance of the scenarios generated through the use of the individual models. The quality of the final scenarios generated was directly connected to the performance of the individual models. Therefore, the proposed framework has potential to improve hydrological forecast for the Brazilian electricity sector with the use of more refined and calibrated individual models.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-10-062023-10-142023-12-012023-12-01
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 14
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
MDB-ID: No data to archive
DOI: 10.1590/2318-0331.282320230120
Working Group: Earth System Modes of Operation
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Regional keyword: South America
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
Source Genre: Journal, Scopus, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 28 Sequence Number: e45 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/2318-0331
Publisher: Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos