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Abstract:
The deliberate addition of sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere to form reflective sulfate aerosols, reflect sunlight, and reduce surface temperatures is increasingly being considered as an option for minimizing the impacts of climate change. This strategy would create an unprecedented climate where the relationship between surface temperature and carbon dioxide concentration is decoupled. The implications of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) for global crop protein concentrations have not yet been explored. While elevated CO2 concentrations are expected to reduce crop protein, higher temperatures may increase crop protein concentrations. Here we report changes of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat protein concentrations under a medium emissions climate change scenario and a SAI scenario to maintain global average temperatures at 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels, as simulated by three global gridded crop models. We show that using SAI to offset surface temperature increases would create decreases in the global protein concentrations of maize and rice, with minimal impact on wheat and soybean. Some already protein-deficient and malnourished nations that rely heavily on these crops to meet protein demands would show large decreases in protein intake under SAI with the current diet pattern, which could exacerbate their nutrient scarcity. The range of results between crop models highlights the need for a more comprehensive analysis using additional crop models, climate models, a broader range of climate intervention scenarios, and advancements in crop models to better represent protein responses to climate changes.
