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Journal Article

Between Scylla and Charybdis: Delayed mitigation narrows the passage between large-scale CDR and high costs

Authors
/persons/resource/Jessica.Strefler

Strefler,  Jessica
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer

Bauer,  Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler,  Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/giannou

Giannousakis,  Anastasis
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Ottmar.Edenhofer

Edenhofer,  Ottmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Citation

Strefler, J., Bauer, N., Kriegler, E., Popp, A., Giannousakis, A., Edenhofer, O. (2018): Between Scylla and Charybdis: Delayed mitigation narrows the passage between large-scale CDR and high costs. - Environmental Research Letters, 13, 4, 044015.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab2ba


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22360
Abstract
There are major concerns about the sustainability of large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. It is therefore an urgent question to what extent CDR will be needed to implement the long term ambition of the Paris Agreement. Here we show that ambitious near term mitigation significantly decreases CDR requirements to keep the Paris climate targets within reach. Following the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) until 2030 makes 2 °C unachievable without CDR. Reducing 2030 emissions by 20% below NDC levels alleviates the trade-off between high transitional challenges and high CDR deployment. Nevertheless, transitional challenges increase significantly if CDR is constrained to less than 5 Gt CO2 a−1 in any year. At least 8 Gt CO2 a−1 CDR are necessary in the long term to achieve 1.5 °C and more than 15 Gt CO2 a−1 to keep transitional challenges in bounds.