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Journal Article

Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling


Singh,  M.
External Organizations;

Krishnan,  R.
External Organizations;


Goswami,  Bedartha
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Choudhury,  A. D.
External Organizations;

Swapna,  P.
External Organizations;

Vellore,  R.
External Organizations;

Prajeesh,  A. G.
External Organizations;

Sandeep,  N.
External Organizations;

Venkataraman,  C.
External Organizations;


Donner,  Reik V.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;


Marwan,  Norbert
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;


Kurths,  Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Singh, M., Krishnan, R., Goswami, B., Choudhury, A. D., Swapna, P., Vellore, R., Prajeesh, A. G., Sandeep, N., Venkataraman, C., Donner, R. V., Marwan, N., Kurths, J. (2020): Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling. - Science Advances, 6, 38, eaba8164.

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24480
Coupling of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon (IM) is central to seasonal summer monsoon rainfall predictions over the Indian subcontinent, although a nonstationary relationship between the two nonlinear phenomena can limit seasonal predictability. Radiative effects of volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere during large volcanic eruptions (LVEs) tend to alter ENSO evolution; however, their impact on ENSO-IM coupling remains unclear. Here, we investigate how LVEs influence the nonlinear behavior of the ENSO and IM dynamical systems using historical data, 25 paleoclimate reconstructions, last-millennium climate simulations, large-ensemble targeted climate sensitivity experiments, and advanced analysis techniques. Our findings show that LVEs promote a significantly enhanced phase-synchronization of the ENSO and IM oscillations, due to an increase in the angular frequency of ENSO. The results also shed innovative insights into the physical mechanism underlying the LVE-induced enhancement of ENSO-IM coupling and strengthen the prospects for improved seasonal monsoon predictions.