Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse




Journal Article

Nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate proxy records


Marwan,  Norbert
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;


Donges,  Jonathan Friedemann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;


Donner,  Reik V.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Eroglu,  Deniz
External Organizations;

External Ressource
No external resources are shared
Fulltext (public)

(Publisher version), 9MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available

Marwan, N., Donges, J. F., Donner, R. V., Eroglu, D. (2021): Nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate proxy records. - Quaternary Science Reviews, 274, 107245.

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26225
Identifying and characterising dynamical regime shifts, critical transitions or potential tipping points in palaeoclimate time series is relevant for im- proving the understanding of often highly nonlinear Earth system dynamics. Beyond linear changes in time series properties such as mean, variance, or trend, these nonlinear regime shifts can manifest as changes in signal pre- dictability, regularity, complexity, or higher-order stochastic properties such as multi-stability. In recent years, several classes of methods have been put forward to study these critical transitions in time series data that are based on concepts from nonlinear dynamics, complex systems science, information theory, and stochastic analysis. These include approaches such as phase space-based recurrence plots and recurrence networks, visibility graphs, or- der pattern-based entropies, and stochastic modelling. Here, we review and compare in detail several prominent methods from these fields by applying them to the same set of marine palaeoclimate proxy records of African cli- mate variations during the past 5 million years. Applying these methods, we observe notable nonlinear transitions in palaeoclimate dynamics in these marine proxy records and discuss them in the context of important climate events and regimes such as phases of intensified Walker circulation, marine isotope stage M2, the onset of northern hemisphere glaciation and the mid-Pleistocene transition. We find that the studied approaches complement each other by allowing us to point out distinct aspects of dynamical regime shifts in palaeoclimate time series. We also detect significant correlations of these nonlinear regime shift indicators with variations of Earth’s orbit, suggest- ing the latter as potential triggers of nonlinear transitions in palaeoclimate. Overall, the presented study underlines the potentials of nonlinear time se- ries analysis approaches to provide complementary information on dynamical regime shifts in palaeoclimate and their driving processes that cannot be re- vealed by linear statistics or eyeball inspection of the data alone.