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Climate Risk Analysis for Identifying and Weighing Adaptation Strategies in Burkina Faso‘s Agricultural Sector

Authors
/persons/resource/froehrig

Röhrig,  Felicitas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/nele.gloy

Gloy,  Nele
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Loeben

von Loeben,  Sophie Charlotte
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Gornott

Gornott,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Arumugam.Ponraj

Arumugam,  Ponraj
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Paula.Aschenbrenner

Aschenbrenner,  Paula
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/HyeRinLea.Baek

Baek,  Hye-Rin Lea
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bado,  I.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Chemura

Chemura,  Abel
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Habtemariam

Habtemariam,  Lemlem Teklegiorgis
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Kaufmann,  J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Hagen.Koch

Koch,  Hagen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Rahel.Laudien

Laudien,  Rahel
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Stefan.Liersch

Liersch,  Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/sophia.luettringhaus

Lüttringhaus,  Anna Sophia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/lisa.murken

Murken,  Lisa
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Neya,  O.
External Organizations;

Noleppa,  S.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sebastian.ostberg

Ostberg,  Sebastian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Sanfo,  S.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/schauberger

Schauberger,  Bernhard
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Shukla

Shukla,  Roopam
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Tomalka

Tomalka,  Julia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Stefanie.Wesch

Wesch,  Stefanie
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/michael.wortmann

Wortmann,  Michel
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

26700.pdf
(Publisher version), 22MB

26700_fr.pdf
(Publisher version), 20MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Röhrig, F., Gloy, N., von Loeben, S. C., Gornott, C., Arumugam, P., Aschenbrenner, P., Baek, H.-R.-L., Bado, I., Chemura, A., Habtemariam, L. T., Kaufmann, J., Koch, H., Laudien, R., Liersch, S., Lüttringhaus, A. S., Murken, L., Neya, O., Noleppa, S., Ostberg, S., Sanfo, S., Schauberger, B., Shukla, R., Tomalka, J., Wesch, S., Wortmann, M. (2021): Climate Risk Analysis for Identifying and Weighing Adaptation Strategies in Burkina Faso‘s Agricultural Sector, Potsdam : A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), 149 p.
https://doi.org/10.48485/pik.2022.001


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26700
Abstract
Burkina Faso has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Burkina Faso. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydro-logical modelling on water availability changes, modelling and comparison of future yields of four widely used crops (maize, sorghum, millet and cowpeas) and an assessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, four different adapta-tion strategies ((1) Integrated soil fertility ma-nagement (ISFM), (2) irrigation, (3) improved seeds and (4) climate information services (CIS)) suggested and selected by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-)effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder work-shops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is on the rise and projected to increase further by 0.6°C (2030) up to 1.1°C (2090) under SSP1-RCP2.6 and by 0.5°C (2030) up to 3.6°C (2090) under SSP3-RCP7.0 in reference to 2004, dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions. Some un-certainty exists for annual precipitation projections, with slight increases until 2050 followed by a slight decrease under SSP1-RCP2.6 and continuous increase under SSP3-RCP7.0 with high year-to-year variability. Projected impacts of cli-mate change on yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Some regions in the north show increasing yields (up to +30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and up to +20% in SSP3-RCP7.0), while few regions in the south present decreasing yields (down to -30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and down to -20% in SSP3-RCP7.0). Crop models show that the areas suitable for cowpeas will decrease in Burkina Faso under future climate change conditions while the suitability for maize, millet and sorghum will remain stable. Moreover, the potential to produce multiple crops will become more and more difficult, which limits farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, can have a high potential for risk mitigation and entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended for smallholder farmers, resulting in very positive effects for societies and environment. Irrigation and improved seeds have a high potential to improve livelihoods especially in Northern Burkina Faso, but are also complex, costly and support-intensive adaptation strategies. Lastly, CIS can support farmers to make informed decisions and thereby reduce the impact of climate risks. Generally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can entail additional benefits and active stakeholder engagement as well as participatory approaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and long-term sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate.