Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections 
showing lower impacts under high warming

Molina Bacca, Edna J.; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Karstens, Kristine; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; Leip, Debbora; Müller, Christoph; Minoli, Sara; Heinke, Jens; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Folberth, Christian; Iizumi, Toshichika; Jain, Atul K.; Liu, Wenfeng; Okada, Masashi; Smerald, Andrew; Zabel, Florian; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z

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Journal Article

Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming

Authors

/persons/resource/MolinaBacca

Molina Bacca, Edna J.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/stevanovic

Stevanović, Miodrag
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Karstens

Karstens, Kristine
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/david.chen

Chen, David Meng-Chuen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/debbora.leip

Leip, Debbora
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/sara.minoli

Minoli, Sara
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jens.Heinke

Heinke, Jens
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr, Jonas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Folberth, Christian
External Organizations;

Iizumi, Toshichika
External Organizations;

Jain, Atul K.
External Organizations;

Liu, Wenfeng
External Organizations;

Okada, Masashi
External Organizations;

Smerald, Andrew
External Organizations;

Zabel, Florian
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8177495
(Supplementary material)

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s43247-023-00941-z.pdf
(Publisher version), 4MB

Supplementary Material (public)

There is no public supplementary material available

Citation

Molina Bacca, E. J., Stevanović, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Karstens, K., Chen, D.-M.-C., Leip, D., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Folberth, C., Iizumi, T., Jain, A. K., Liu, W., Okada, M., Smerald, A., Zabel, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A. (2023): Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming. - Communications Earth and Environment, 4, 284.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28731

Abstract

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.