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Journal Article

The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system

Authors
/persons/resource/Ricarda.Winkelmann

Winkelmann,  Ricarda
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/donovan.dennis

Dennis,  Donovan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Donges

Donges,  Jonathan Friedemann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/sina.loriani

Loriani,  Sina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/klose.ann.kristin

Klose,  Ann Kristin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Abrams,  Jesse F.
External Organizations;

Alvarez-Solas,  Jorge
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Torsten.Albrecht

Albrecht,  Torsten
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

McKay,  David Armstrong
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sebastian.bathiany

Bathiany,  Sebastian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Navarro,  Javier Blasco
External Organizations;

Brovkin,  Victor
External Organizations;

Burke,  Eleanor
External Organizations;

Danabasoglu,  Gokhan
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Reik.Donner

Donner,  Reik V.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/markus.drueke

Drüke,  Markus
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Georgievski,  Goran
External Organizations;

Goelzer,  Heiko
External Organizations;

Harper,  Anna B.
External Organizations;

Hegerl,  Gabriele
External Organizations;

Hirota,  Marina
External Organizations;

Hu,  Aixue
External Organizations;

Jackson,  Laura C.
External Organizations;

Jones,  Colin
External Organizations;

Kim,  Hyungjun
External Organizations;

Koenigk,  Torben
External Organizations;

Lawrence,  Peter
External Organizations;

Lenton,  Timothy M.
External Organizations;

Liddy,  Hannah
External Organizations;

Licón-Saláiz,  José
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Menthon,  Maxence
External Organizations;

Montoya,  Marisa
External Organizations;

Nitzbon,  Jan
External Organizations;

Nowicki,  Sophie
External Organizations;

Otto-Bliesner,  Bette
External Organizations;

Pausata,  Francesco
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Stefan.Rahmstorf

Rahmstorf,  Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Ramin,  Karoline
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Robinson,  Alexander
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/johan.rockstrom

Rockström,  Johan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Romanou,  Anastasia
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Boris.Sakschewski

Sakschewski,  Boris
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Schädel,  Christina
External Organizations;

Sherwood,  Steven
External Organizations;

Smith,  Robin S.
External Organizations;

Steinert,  Norman J.
External Organizations;

Swingedouw,  Didier
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/willeit

Willeit,  Matteo
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Weijer,  Wilbert
External Organizations;

Wood,  Richard
External Organizations;

Wyser,  Klaus
External Organizations;

Yang,  Shuting
External Organizations;

External Ressource
No external resources are shared
Fulltext (public)

egusphere-2025-1899.pdf
(Preprint), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Winkelmann, R., Dennis, D., Donges, J. F., Loriani, S., Klose, A. K., Abrams, J. F., Alvarez-Solas, J., Albrecht, T., McKay, D. A., Bathiany, S., Navarro, J. B., Brovkin, V., Burke, E., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, R. V., Drüke, M., Georgievski, G., Goelzer, H., Harper, A. B., Hegerl, G., Hirota, M., Hu, A., Jackson, L. C., Jones, C., Kim, H., Koenigk, T., Lawrence, P., Lenton, T. M., Liddy, H., Licón-Saláiz, J., Menthon, M., Montoya, M., Nitzbon, J., Nowicki, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Pausata, F., Rahmstorf, S., Ramin, K., Robinson, A., Rockström, J., Romanou, A., Sakschewski, B., Schädel, C., Sherwood, S., Smith, R. S., Steinert, N. J., Swingedouw, D., Willeit, M., Weijer, W., Wood, R., Wyser, K., Yang, S. (submitted): The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system.


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32434
Abstract
The risk of transgressing critical thresholds triggering nonlinear change in the Earth system increases with rising human pressures from greenhouse gas emissions, land-use change and other drivers. Several key components of the Earth System such as the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, permafrost, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and boreal and tropical forests as well as mountain glaciers, terrestrial hydrological systems and the Sahel region have been suggested to exhibit self-amplifying feedback processes that could lead to non-linear and often abrupt and/or irreversible transitions with far-reaching biophysical and socio-economic consequences. While concerns within the scientific community, general public and among policy- and decision-makers are growing, significant uncertainties remain regarding the critical thresholds, timescales, interactions and impacts of such tipping dynamics. To address these critical knowledge gaps, we here present the Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP), an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks using state-of-the-art coupled Earth System Models and stand-alone domain models, e.g., ice sheet and land system models. Building on the success of established Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), TIPMIP aims to standardize model experiments, quantify uncertainty ranges for critical forcing thresholds, and provide a multi-model assessment of tipping dynamics across key Earth system components. TIPMIP will enhance our ability to anticipate and mitigate the risks associated with Earth system tipping points, and support science-based decision-making in the face of high-end impacts and deep uncertainties