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Abstract

Study region: Eight main river basins covering the major part of Ukraine. Study focus: The main aim of this study was to provide an assessment of climate change impacts on water availability across Ukraine using global hydrological models. Six global hydrological models were evaluated for their performance in the historical period in the basins under study. Future river discharge was simulated by using the best performing model and all available models driven by bias-corrected GCM projections from the ISIMIP project under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show precipitation increase up to 10 % under RCP 2.6, and variable changes from -14 % to +10 % under RCP 8.5 by the end of the century. The projections show the decreasing mean annual river discharge in the majority of basins for the middle (2040–2070) and far future (2071–2100) periods under both RCPs, and the decrease is stronger under RCP 8.5. The seasonal changes are characterised by a decrease in summer and a small to moderate increase in winter months in most of the basins. The highest reduction of mean annual discharge was projected for the Pripyat, Southern Bug and Dniester basins, reaching up to -30 % to the end of the century under RCP 8.5.