English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
Add to Basket
  Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released
Journal Article

Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model

Authors
/persons/resource/Nico.Wunderling

Wunderling,  Nico
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Ricarda.Winkelmann

Winkelmann,  Ricarda
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/johan.rockstrom

Rockström,  Johan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/sina.loriani

Loriani,  Sina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

McKay,  David I. Armstrong
External Organizations;

Ritchie,  Paul D. L.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Boris.Sakschewski

Sakschewski,  Boris
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Donges

Donges,  Jonathan Friedemann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource
No external resources are shared
Fulltext (public)

27628oa.pdf
(Postprint), 7MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Rockström, J., Loriani, S., McKay, D. I. A., Ritchie, P. D. L., Sakschewski, B., Donges, J. F. (2023): Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model. - Nature Climate Change, 13, 75-82.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27628
Abstract
Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming.