Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop 
waterlogging under future climates

Liu, Ke; Harrison, Matthew Tom; Yan, Haoliang; Liu, De Li; Meinke, Holger; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Wang, Bin; Peng, Bin; Guan, Kaiyu; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Wang, Enli; Zhang, Feng; Yin, Xiaogang; Archontoulis, Sotirios; Nie, Lixiao; Badea, Ana; Man, Jianguo; Wallach, Daniel; Zhao, Jin; Benjumea, Ana Borrego; Fahad, Shah; Tian, Xiaohai; Wang, Weilu; Tao, Fulu; Zhang, Zhao; Rötter, Reimund; Yuan, Youlu; Zhu, Min; Dai, Panhong; Nie, Jiangwen; Yang, Yadong; Zhang, Yunbo; Zhou, Meixue

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-36129-4

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学術論文

Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates

Authors

Liu, Ke
External Organizations;

Harrison, Matthew Tom
External Organizations;

Yan, Haoliang
External Organizations;

Liu, De Li
External Organizations;

Meinke, Holger
External Organizations;

Hoogenboom, Gerrit
External Organizations;

Wang, Bin
External Organizations;

Peng, Bin
External Organizations;

Guan, Kaiyu
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr, Jonas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Wang, Enli
External Organizations;

Zhang, Feng
External Organizations;

Yin, Xiaogang
External Organizations;

Archontoulis, Sotirios
External Organizations;

Nie, Lixiao
External Organizations;

Badea, Ana
External Organizations;

Man, Jianguo
External Organizations;

Wallach, Daniel
External Organizations;

Zhao, Jin
External Organizations;

Benjumea, Ana Borrego
External Organizations;

Fahad, Shah
External Organizations;

Tian, Xiaohai
External Organizations;

Wang, Weilu
External Organizations;

Tao, Fulu
External Organizations;

Zhang, Zhao
External Organizations;

Rötter, Reimund
External Organizations;

Yuan, Youlu
External Organizations;

Zhu, Min
External Organizations;

Dai, Panhong
External Organizations;

Nie, Jiangwen
External Organizations;

Yang, Yadong
External Organizations;

Zhang, Yunbo
External Organizations;

Zhou, Meixue
External Organizations;

URL

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7444483
(付録資料)

フルテキスト (公開)

s41467-023-36129-4.pdf
(出版社版), 7MB

付随資料 (公開)

There is no public supplementary material available

引用

Liu, K., Harrison, M. T., Yan, H., Liu, D. L., Meinke, H., Hoogenboom, G., Wang, B., Peng, B., Guan, K., Jägermeyr, J., Wang, E., Zhang, F., Yin, X., Archontoulis, S., Nie, L., Badea, A., Man, J., Wallach, D., Zhao, J., Benjumea, A. B., Fahad, S., Tian, X., Wang, W., Tao, F., Zhang, Z., Rötter, R., Yuan, Y., Zhu, M., Dai, P., Nie, J., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., & Zhou, M. (2023). Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates. Nature Communications, 14:. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-36129-4.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28337

要旨

Extreme weather events threaten food security, yet global assessments of impacts caused by crop waterlogging are rare. Here we first develop a paradigm that distils common stress patterns across environments, genotypes and climate horizons. Second, we embed improved process-based understanding into a farming systems model to discern changes in global crop waterlogging under future climates. Third, we develop avenues for adapting cropping systems to waterlogging contextualised by environment. We find that yield penalties caused by waterlogging increase from 3–11% historically to 10–20% by 2080, with penalties reflecting a trade-off between the duration of waterlogging and the timing of waterlogging relative to crop stage. We document greater potential for waterlogging-tolerant genotypes in environments with longer temperate growing seasons (e.g., UK, France, Russia, China), compared with environments with higher annualised ratios of evapotranspiration to precipitation (e.g., Australia). Under future climates, altering sowing time and adoption of waterlogging-tolerant genotypes reduces yield penalties by 18%, while earlier sowing of winter genotypes alleviates waterlogging by 8%. We highlight the serendipitous outcome wherein waterlogging stress patterns under present conditions are likely to be similar to those in the future, suggesting that adaptations for future climates could be designed using stress patterns realised today.