Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income 
nations

Bajaj, Kushank; Mehrabi, Zia; Kastner, Thomas; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Müller, Christoph; Schwarzmüller, Florian; Hertel, Thomas W.; Ramankutty, Navin

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0314722

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学術論文

Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations

Authors

Bajaj, Kushank
External Organizations;

Mehrabi, Zia
External Organizations;

Kastner, Thomas
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr, Jonas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Schwarzmüller, Florian
External Organizations;

Hertel, Thomas W.
External Organizations;

Ramankutty, Navin
External Organizations;

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フルテキスト (公開)

journal.pone.0314722.pdf
(出版社版), 2MB

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引用

Bajaj, K., Mehrabi, Z., Kastner, T., Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Schwarzmüller, F., Hertel, T. W., & Ramankutty, N. (2025). Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations. PloS ONE, 20(1):. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0314722.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_31610

要旨

The risk of national food supply disruptions is linked to both domestic production and food imports. But assessments of climate change risks for food systems typically focus on the impacts on domestic production, ignoring climate impacts in supplying regions. Here, we use global crop modeling data in combination with current trade flows to evaluate potential climate change impacts on national food supply, comparing impacts on domestic production alone (domestic production impacts) to impacts considering how climate change impacts production in all source regions (consumption impact). Under 2°C additional global mean warming over present day, our analysis highlights that climate impacts on national supply are aggravated for 53% high income and 56% upper medium income countries and mitigated for 60% low- and 71% low-medium income countries under consumption-based impacts compared to domestic impacts alone. We find that many countries are reliant on a few mega-exporters who mediate these climate impacts. Managing the risk of climate change for national food security requires a global perspective, considering not only how national production is affected, but also how climate change affects trading partners.