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Abstract

With global warming rapidly approaching 1.5 °C, widespread and systemic risks of crossing several Earth System Tipping Points (ESTP) are becoming an emerging security threat for Europe. Stepping up international climate mitigation action remains fundamental to avoid dangerous climate change and the possible crossing of ESTP with direct impacts to Europe - for example a collapse of the Atlantic ocean circulation, melting of Arctic ice-sheets and boreal permafrost melting. In addition, Europe needs anticipatory governance to prepare for widespread systemic risks resulting from trespassing ESTP. Early warning monitoring systems and ESTP-tailored risk assessments for Europe are needed to support preparedness strategies through resilience building and adaptation planning. Preparedness for ESTP entails informing the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, the EU Climate Adaptation strategy, and the forthcoming EU Preparedness Union Strategy. This policy brief offers recommendations to the European Union, its member states and international institutions on the actions needed to cover the anticipatory governance gap.