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Journal Article

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Authors
/persons/resource/sina.loriani

Loriani,  Sina       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Aksenov,  Yevgeny
External Organizations;

Armstrong MyKay,  David
External Organizations;

Bala,  Govindasamy
External Organizations;

Born,  Andreas
External Organizations;

Chiessy,  Cristiano M.
External Organizations;

Dijkstra,  Henk
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Donges

Donges,  Jonathan Friedemann       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Drijfhout,  Sybren
External Organizations;

England,  Matthew H.
External Organizations;

Fedorov,  Alexey V.
External Organizations;

Jackson,  Laura
External Organizations;

Kornhuber,  Kai
External Organizations;

Messori,  Gabriele
External Organizations;

Pausata,  Francesco
External Organizations;

Rynders,  Stefanie
External Organizations;

Salée,  Jean-Baptiste
External Organizations;

Sinha,  Bablu
External Organizations;

Sherwood,  Steven
External Organizations;

Swingedouw,  Didier
External Organizations;

Tharammal,  Thejna
External Organizations;

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esd-16-1611-2025.pdf
(Publisher version), 9MB

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Citation

Loriani, S., Aksenov, Y., Armstrong MyKay, D., Bala, G., Born, A., Chiessy, C. M., Dijkstra, H., Donges, J. F., Drijfhout, S., England, M. H., Fedorov, A. V., Jackson, L., Kornhuber, K., Messori, G., Pausata, F., Rynders, S., Salée, J.-B., Sinha, B., Sherwood, S., Swingedouw, D., Tharammal, T. (2025): Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations. - Earth System Dynamics, 16, 5, 1611-1653.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32842
Abstract
Continued anthropogenic pressures on the Earth system hold the potential to disrupt established circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere. In this narrative review, we investigate tipping points in these systems by assessing scientific evidence for feedbacks that may drive self-sustained change beyond critical forcing thresholds, drawing on insights from expert elicitation. The literature provides multiple strands of evidence for oceanic tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, which may collapse under warmer and “fresher” (i.e. less salty) conditions. A slowdown or collapse of these oceanic circulations would have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the climate system and could lead to strong impacts on human societies and the biosphere.

Among the atmospheric circulation systems considered, a few lines of evidence suggest the West African monsoon (WAM) as a tipping system. Its abrupt changes in the past have led to vastly different vegetation states of the Sahara (e.g. “green Sahara” states). Despite multiple potential sources of destabilization, evidence about tipping of the monsoon systems over South America and Asia is limited. Although theoretically possible, there is currently little indication for tipping points in tropical clouds or mid-latitude atmospheric circulations. Similarly, tipping towards a more extreme or persistent state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently not fully supported by models and observations.

While the tipping thresholds for many of these systems are uncertain, tipping could have severe socio-environmental consequences. Stabilizing Earth's climate (along with minimizing other environmental pressures, such as aerosol pollution and ecosystem degradation) is critical for reducing the likelihood of reaching tipping points in the ocean–atmosphere system.