Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided 
within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project 
(ISIMIP3b, group I and II)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Schewe, Jacob; Mengel, Matthias; Treu, Simon; Otto, Christian; Volkholz, Jan; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Heinicke, Stefanie; Jones , Colin; Blanchard , Julia L.; Harrison, Cheryl S.; Petrik, Colleen M.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Novaglio, Camilla; Heneghan, Ryan; Tittensor, Derek P.; Maury, Olivier; Büchner, Matthias; Vogt, Thomas; Quesada Chacón, Dánnell; Emanuel, Kerry; Lee, Chia-Ying; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hamester, Linn; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Rabin, Sam; Klar, Jochen; Vega del Valle, Iliusi; Novak, Lisa; Sauer, Inga; Lasslop, Gitta; Chadburn, Sarah; Burke, Eleanor; Gallego-Sala, Angela; Smith, Noah; Chang, Jinfeng; Hantson, Stijn; Burton, Chantelle; Gädeke, Anne; Li, Fang; Gosling, Simon N.; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Hattermann, Fred Fokko; Hickler, Thomas; Marcé, Rafael; Pierson, Don; Thiery, Wim; Mercado-Bettín, Daniel; Ladwig, Robert; Ayala, Ana Isabel; Forrest, Matthew; Bechtold, Michel; Reinecke, Robert; de Graaf, Inge; Kaplan, Jed O.; Koch, Alexander; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Kumar, Rohini; Strokal, Maryna

doi:10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026

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Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)

Authors

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler, Katja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/slange

Lange, Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe, Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/matthias.mengel

Mengel, Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Simon.Treu

Treu, Simon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/christian.otto

Otto, Christian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jan.Volkholz

Volkholz, Jan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Stefanie.Heinicke

Heinicke, Stefanie
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Jones , Colin
External Organizations;

Blanchard , Julia L.
External Organizations;

Harrison, Cheryl S.
External Organizations;

Petrik, Colleen M.
External Organizations;

Eddy, Tyler D.
External Organizations;

Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly
External Organizations;

Novaglio, Camilla
External Organizations;

Heneghan, Ryan
External Organizations;

Tittensor, Derek P.
External Organizations;

Maury, Olivier
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Matthias.Buechner

Büchner, Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/thomas.vogt

Vogt, Thomas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/dannell.quesada

Quesada Chacón, Dánnell
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Emanuel, Kerry
External Organizations;

Lee, Chia-Ying
External Organizations;

Camargo, Suzana J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Linn.Hamester

Hamester, Linn
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr, Jonas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rabin, Sam
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/jochen.klar

Klar, Jochen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/delvalle

Vega del Valle, Iliusi
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/lisa.novak

Novak, Lisa
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/inga.sauer

Sauer, Inga
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lasslop, Gitta
External Organizations;

Chadburn, Sarah
External Organizations;

Burke, Eleanor
External Organizations;

Gallego-Sala, Angela
External Organizations;

Smith, Noah
External Organizations;

Chang, Jinfeng
External Organizations;

Hantson, Stijn
External Organizations;

Burton, Chantelle
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Anne.Gaedeke

Gädeke, Anne
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Li, Fang
External Organizations;

Gosling, Simon N.
External Organizations;

Müller Schmied, Hannes
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Fred.Hattermann

Hattermann, Fred Fokko
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Hickler, Thomas
External Organizations;

Marcé, Rafael
External Organizations;

Pierson, Don
External Organizations;

Thiery, Wim
External Organizations;

Mercado-Bettín, Daniel
External Organizations;

Ladwig, Robert
External Organizations;

Ayala, Ana Isabel
External Organizations;

Forrest, Matthew
External Organizations;

Bechtold, Michel
External Organizations;

Reinecke, Robert
External Organizations;

de Graaf, Inge
External Organizations;

Kaplan, Jed O.
External Organizations;

Koch, Alexander
External Organizations;

Lengaigne, Matthieu
External Organizations;

Kumar, Rohini
External Organizations;

Strokal, Maryna
External Organizations;

External Resource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2586869
(Research data)

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6344911
(Research data)

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17990574
(Research data)

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3970975
(Research data)

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3952695
(Research data)

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3759523
(Research data)

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Citation

Frieler, K., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., Treu, S., Otto, C., Volkholz, J., Reyer, C. P. O., Heinicke, S., Jones, C., Blanchard, J. L., Harrison, C. S., Petrik, C. M., Eddy, T. D., Ortega-Cisneros, K., Novaglio, C., Heneghan, R., Tittensor, D. P., Maury, O., Büchner, M., Vogt, T., Quesada Chacón, D., Emanuel, K., Lee, C.-Y., Camargo, S. J., Hamester, L., Jägermeyr, J., Rabin, S., Klar, J., Vega del Valle, I., Novak, L., Sauer, I., Lasslop, G., Chadburn, S., Burke, E., Gallego-Sala, A., Smith, N., Chang, J., Hantson, S., Burton, C., Gädeke, A., Li, F., Gosling, S. N., Müller Schmied, H., Hattermann, F. F., Hickler, T., Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Thiery, W., Mercado-Bettín, D., Ladwig, R., Ayala, A. I., Forrest, M., Bechtold, M., Reinecke, R., de Graaf, I., Kaplan, J. O., Koch, A., Lengaigne, M., Kumar, R., Strokal, M. (2026): Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II). - Geoscientific Model Development, 19, 10, 4095-4135.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34694

Abstract

This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs), i.e. change in climate comprising the atmosphere and the ocean, coastal water levels, and atmospheric composition (CO2 and methane concentrations), provided as input data within the “b” part of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). While ISIMIP3a comprises historical impact models simulations forced by observational Direct Human Forcings (DHF), such as changes in population and asset distributions, land use, fishing efforts, agricultural and water management driven by socio-economic development or climate protection strategies, and observational CRF, the ISIMIP3b CRFs are based on climate model simulations generated within the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In a first set of experiments covering the pre-industrial (1601–1849) and historical period (1850–2014) (ISIMIP3b, group I) the CMIP6-based CRFs for the historical period are combined with historical observation-based DHF also considered in ISIMIP3a. These group I simulations allow for the quantification of impacts of historical climate change by comparison to simulations where the observational DHF are combined with simulated pre-industrial CRFs. In addition, the impacts of observed changes in CRFs can be compared to the impacts of simulated changes in CRFs by comparing the ISIMIP3a simulations to the ISIMIP3b, group I simulations. The second group of experiments (ISIMIP3b, group II) comprises future projections assuming constant observational direct human forcings at 2015 levels to estimate the impact of climate change given today's DHF for the low emission scenario SSP1-2.6, the high and the very high emission scenarios SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5, and reference simulations based on pre-industrial CRF, respectively. The very high emissions scenarios and the assumption of fixed present day DHF particularly allow for testing the scalability of impacts in terms of global temperature change. The provided CRFs comprise atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations, atmospheric and oceanic climate data, coastal water levels, tropical cyclone (TC) tracks and their associated wind speed and precipitation fields. In addition to the CRFs data, this paper describes the experiments belonging to group I and II and the rationale behind them. Another set of future projections accounting for changing DHFs (ISIMIP3b, group III) is in preparation and will be described in another paper.