English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
Add to Basket
  Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released
Journal Article

Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

Authors

Gibson,  Matthew
External Organizations;

Sundiang,  Marina
External Organizations;

Mason-D’Croz,  Daniel
External Organizations;

Diniz Oliveira,  Thais
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/felicitas.beier

Beier,  Felicitas       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Benavidez,  Lauren
External Organizations;

Bos,  Astrid
External Organizations;

Chepeliev,  Maksym
External Organizations;

Doelman,  Jonathan
External Organizations;

Dunston,  Shahnila
External Organizations;

Fujimori,  Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Hasegawa,  Tomoko
External Organizations;

Havlik,  Petr
External Organizations;

Hristov,  Jordan
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr,  Jonas       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Kozicka,  Marta
External Organizations;

Kuiper,  Marijke
External Organizations;

Kyle,  Page
External Organizations;

de Lange,  Thijs
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky,  Benjamin Leon       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen,  Hermann       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Luchtenbelt,  Hermen
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/david.chen

Chen,  David Meng-Chuen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Abhijeet.Mishra

Mishra,  Abhijeet       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller,  Christoph       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Nelson,  Gerald
External Organizations;

Palazzo,  Amanda
External Organizations;

Perez Dominguez,  Ignacio
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Sands,  Ronald
External Organizations;

Springmann,  Marco
External Organizations;

Stehfest,  Elke
External Organizations;

Sulser,  Timothy B.
External Organizations;

Takahashi,  Kiyoshi
External Organizations;

Tassinari,  Gianmaria
External Organizations;

Thom,  Ferike
External Organizations;

Thornton,  Philip
External Organizations;

Tsuchiya,  Kazuaki
External Organizations;

van Zeist,  Willem-Jan
External Organizations;

van Meijl,  Hans
External Organizations;

van der Mensbrugghe,  Dominique
External Organizations;

Van Vuuren,  Detlef
External Organizations;

van Zanten,  Hannah H. E.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Isabelle.Weindl

Weindl,  Isabelle       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Wiebe,  Keith
External Organizations;

Zhao,  Xin
External Organizations;

Herrero,  Mario
External Organizations;

External Resource
No external resources are shared
Fulltext (restricted access)
There are currently no full texts shared for your IP range.
Fulltext (public)

s41586-026-10775-2.pdf
(Publisher version), 9MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Gibson, M., Sundiang, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Diniz Oliveira, T., Beier, F., Benavidez, L., Bos, A., Chepeliev, M., Doelman, J., Dunston, S., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hristov, J., Jägermeyr, J., Kozicka, M., Kuiper, M., Kyle, P., de Lange, T., Bodirsky, B. L., Lotze-Campen, H., Luchtenbelt, H., Chen, D.-M.-C., Mishra, A., Müller, C., Nelson, G., Palazzo, A., Perez Dominguez, I., Popp, A., Sands, R., Springmann, M., Stehfest, E., Sulser, T. B., Takahashi, K., Tassinari, G., Thom, F., Thornton, P., Tsuchiya, K., van Zeist, W.-J., van Meijl, H., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Van Vuuren, D., van Zanten, H. H. E., Weindl, I., Wiebe, K., Zhao, X., Herrero, M. (2026 online): Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture. - Nature.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34707
Abstract
Food systems are a major contributor to exceeding planetary boundaries1,2,3 and poor quality diets are a key mortality risk globally4. Projected population and income growth could exacerbate these challenges5. In response, there are calls for transformation towards healthy and sustainable food systems6,7,8. However, the scale and distribution of the impacts of this transformation on agriculture are underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, the transformation of food systems towards healthy diets (adoption of the EAT–Lancet reference diet), improved productivity and halving of food waste results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario simulations using a multimodel ensemble of ten global economic models show a 6% median decrease in agricultural land (+1% to −26%) compared with 2020 levels. By 2050, agricultural production would be 17% lower than business-as-usual projections (−2% to −32%) and, economically, the value of this production is US$1.6 trillion (26%) lower (+8% to −58%). Within this, the value of livestock production would be substantially lower than current 2050 projections (−49% to −83%), while vegetable, fruit, nut and legume production value would increase by 23% (−33% to +106%). Results are dependent on the assumed policies to achieve the transformation scenario. We highlight a more active role for food policy to consider the benefits of such a transformation (improved population health and reduced environmental pressures) and navigate the political economy of its impacts.