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  Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts

Schultes, A., Piontek, F., Sörgel, B., Rogelj, J., Baumstark, L., Kriegler, E., Edenhofer, O., Luderer, G. (2021): Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts. - Environmental Research Letters, 16, 10, 104053.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ce

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 Creators:
Schultes, Anselm1, Author              
Piontek, Franziska1, Author              
Sörgel, Björn1, Author              
Rogelj, Joeri2, Author
Baumstark, Lavinia1, Author              
Kriegler, Elmar1, Author              
Edenhofer, Ottmar1, Author              
Luderer, Gunnar1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Pathways towards limiting global warming to well below 2°C, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2°C. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth, and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of $115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2°C limit only.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-09-172021-09-172021-10
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 10
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ce
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: Director Edenhofer
Research topic keyword: Carbon Pricing
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Policy Advice
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: REMIND
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
MDB-ID: yes - 3262
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 16 (10) Sequence Number: 104053 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing