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  Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D. B., Martre, P., Ruane, A., Wallach, D., Jones, J. W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P. K., Alderman, P., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. C., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, D., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Folberth, C., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izzaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Kimball, B. A., Koehler, A.-K., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Ottman, M. J., Palosuo, T., Prasad, P. V., Priesack, E., Pugh, T. A., Reynolds, M., Rezaei, E. E., Rötter, R. P., Schmid, E., Semenov, M., Shcherbak, I., Stehfest, E., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovich, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P. J., Waha, K., Wall, G. W., Wang, E., White, J., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z., Zhu, Y. (2016): Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. - Nature Climate Change, 6, 12, 1130-1136.
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3115

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 Creators:
Liu, B.1, Author
Asseng, S.1, Author
Müller, Christoph2, Author              
Ewert, F.1, Author
Elliott, J.1, Author
Lobell, D. B.1, Author
Martre, P.1, Author
Ruane, A.1, Author
Wallach, D.1, Author
Jones, J. W.1, Author
Rosenzweig, C.1, Author
Aggarwal, P. K.1, Author
Alderman, P.1, Author
Anothai, J.1, Author
Basso, B.1, Author
Biernath, C.1, Author
Cammarano, D.1, Author
Challinor, A. C.1, Author
Deryng, D.1, Author
De Sanctis, D.1, Author
Doltra, J.1, AuthorFereres, E.1, AuthorFolberth, C.1, AuthorGarcia-Vila, M.1, AuthorGayler, S.1, AuthorHoogenboom, G.1, AuthorHunt, L. A.1, AuthorIzzaurralde, R. C.1, AuthorJabloun, M.1, AuthorJones, C. D.1, AuthorKersebaum, K. C.1, AuthorKimball, B. A.1, AuthorKoehler, A.-K.1, AuthorKumar, S. N.1, AuthorNendel, C.1, AuthorO'leary, G.1, AuthorOlesen, J. E.1, AuthorOttman, M. J.1, AuthorPalosuo, T.1, AuthorPrasad, P. V.1, AuthorPriesack, E.1, AuthorPugh, T. A.1, AuthorReynolds, M.1, AuthorRezaei, E. E.1, AuthorRötter, R. P.1, AuthorSchmid, E.1, AuthorSemenov, M.1, AuthorShcherbak, I.1, AuthorStehfest, E.1, AuthorStöckle, C. O.1, AuthorStratonovich, P.1, AuthorStreck, T.1, AuthorSupit, I.1, AuthorTao, F.1, AuthorThorburn, P. J.1, AuthorWaha, Katharina2, Author              Wall, G. W.1, AuthorWang, E.1, AuthorWhite, J.1, AuthorWolf, J.1, AuthorZhao, Z.1, AuthorZhu, Y.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3115
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7268
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: LPJmL
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 6 (12) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1130 - 1136 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414