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Abstract:
Coupling of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon (IM) is central to 23 seasonal predictions of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, although a non-24 stationary relationship between the two nonlinear phenomena can limit seasonal predictability. 25 Radiative effects of volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere during large volcanic 26 eruptions (LVEs) tend to alter ENSO evolution, however, their impact on ENSO-IM coupling 27 remains unclear. Here we investigate how LVEs influence the nonlinear behavior of the ENSO 28 and IM dynamical systems using historical data, 25 paleoclimate reconstructions, last-29 millennium climate simulations, large-ensemble targeted climate sensitivity experiments and 30 advanced analyses techniques. Our findings show that LVEs promote a significantly enhanced 31 phase-synchronization of the ENSO and IM oscillations, due to an increase in the angular 32 frequency of ENSO. The results also shed innovative insights into the physical mechanism 33
Science Advances Submitted Manuscript: Confidential Page 2 of 42
underlying the LVE-induced enhancement of ENSO-IM coupling and strengthen the prospects 34 for improved seasonal monsoon predictions.
