Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling

Singh, M.; Krishnan, R.; Goswami, Bedartha; Choudhury, A. D.; Swapna, P.; Vellore, R.; Prajeesh, A. G.; Sandeep, N.; Venkataraman, C.; Donner, Reik V.; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aba8164

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学術論文

Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling

Authors

Singh, M.
External Organizations;

Krishnan, R.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/goswami

Goswami, Bedartha
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Choudhury, A. D.
External Organizations;

Swapna, P.
External Organizations;

Vellore, R.
External Organizations;

Prajeesh, A. G.
External Organizations;

Sandeep, N.
External Organizations;

Venkataraman, C.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Reik.Donner

Donner, Reik V.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Marwan

Marwan, Norbert
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Juergen.Kurths

Kurths, Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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24480oa.pdf
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引用

Singh, M., Krishnan, R., Goswami, B., Choudhury, A. D., Swapna, P., Vellore, R., Prajeesh, A. G., Sandeep, N., Venkataraman, C., Donner, R. V., Marwan, N., & Kurths, J. (2020). Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling. Science Advances, 6(38):. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aba8164.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24480

要旨

Coupling of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon (IM) is central to seasonal summer monsoon rainfall predictions over the Indian subcontinent, although a nonstationary relationship between the two nonlinear phenomena can limit seasonal predictability. Radiative effects of volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere during large volcanic eruptions (LVEs) tend to alter ENSO evolution; however, their impact on ENSO-IM coupling remains unclear. Here, we investigate how LVEs influence the nonlinear behavior of the ENSO and IM dynamical systems using historical data, 25 paleoclimate reconstructions, last-millennium climate simulations, large-ensemble targeted climate sensitivity experiments, and advanced analysis techniques. Our findings show that LVEs promote a significantly enhanced phase-synchronization of the ENSO and IM oscillations, due to an increase in the angular frequency of ENSO. The results also shed innovative insights into the physical mechanism underlying the LVE-induced enhancement of ENSO-IM coupling and strengthen the prospects for improved seasonal monsoon predictions.