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  Climate impact emergence and flood peak synchronization projections in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghan basins under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios

Gädeke, A., Wortmann, M., Menz, C., Saiful Islam, A. K. M., Masood, M., Krysanova, V., Lange, S., Hattermann, F. F. (2022): Climate impact emergence and flood peak synchronization projections in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghan basins under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios. - Environmental Research Letters, 17, 9, 094036.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ca1

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 Creators:
Gädeke, Anne1, Author              
Wortmann, Michel1, Author              
Menz, Christoph1, Author              
Saiful Islam, A. K. M.2, Author
Masood, Muhammad2, Author
Krysanova, Valentina1, Author              
Lange, Stefan1, Author              
Hattermann, Fred Fokko1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The densely populated delta of the three river systems of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna is highly prone to floods. Potential climate change-related increases in flood intensity are therefore of major societal concern as more than 40 million people live in flood-prone areas in downstream Bangladesh. Here we report on new flood projections using a hydrological model forced by bias-adjusted ensembles of the latest-generation global climate models of CMIP6 (SSP5-8.5/SSP1-2.6) in comparison to CMIP5 (RCP8.5/RCP2.6). Results suggest increases in peak flow magnitude of 36% (16%) on average under SSP5-8.5 (SSP1-2.6), compared to 60% (17%) under RCP8.5 (RCP2.6) by 2070-2099 relative to 1971-2000. Under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 (2070-2099), the largest increase in flood risk is projected for the Ganges watershed, where higher flood peaks become the “new norm” as early as mid-2030 implying a relatively short time window for adaptation. In the Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers, the climate impact signal on peak flow emerges after 2070 (CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections). Flood peak synchronization, when annual peak flow occurs simultaneously at (at least) two rivers leading to large flooding events within Bangladesh, show a consistent increase under both projections. While the variability across the ensemble remains high, the increases in flood magnitude are robust in the study basins. Our findings emphasize the need of stringent climate mitigation policies to reduce the climate change impact on peak flows (as presented using SSP1-2.6/RCP2.6) and to subsequently minimize adverse socioeconomic impacts and adaptation costs. Considering Bangladesh's high overall vulnerability to climate change and its downstream location, synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigation and transboundary cooperation will need to be strengthened to improve overall climate resilience and achieve sustainable development.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-08-252022-08-252022-09
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 15
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
Working Group: Data-Centric Modeling of Cross-Sectoral Impacts
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Regional keyword: Asia
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Model / method: SWIM
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ca1
 Degree: -

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Project name : Gefördert im Rahmen des Förderprogramms "Open Access Publikationskosten" durch die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Projektnummer 491075472.
Grant ID : -
Funding program : Open-Access-Publikationskosten (491075472)
Funding organization : Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 17 (9) Sequence Number: 094036 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing