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  The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere-land interactions

Drüke, M., Lucht, W., von Bloh, W., Petri, S., Sakschewski, B., Tobian, A., Loriani, S., Schaphoff, S., Feulner, G., Thonicke, K. (2024): The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere-land interactions. - Earth System Dynamics, 15, 2, 467-483.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10830068 (Supplementary material)
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 Creators:
Drüke, Markus1, Author              
Lucht, Wolfgang1, Author              
von Bloh, Werner1, Author              
Petri, Stefan1, Author              
Sakschewski, Boris1, Author              
Tobian, Arne1, Author              
Loriani, Sina1, Author              
Schaphoff, Sibyll1, Author              
Feulner, Georg1, Author              
Thonicke, Kirsten1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Human activities have had a significant impact on Earth's systems and processes, leading to a transition of Earth's state from the relatively stable Holocene epoch to the Anthropocene. The planetary boundaries framework characterizes major risks of destabilization, particularly in the core dimensions of climate and biosphere change. Land system change, including deforestation and urbanization, alters ecosystems and impacts the water and energy cycle between land surface and atmosphere, while climate change can disrupt the balance of ecosystems and impact vegetation composition and soil carbon pools. These drivers also interact with each other, further exacerbating their impacts. Earth system models have been used recently to illustrate the risks and interacting effects of transgressing selected planetary boundaries, but a detailed analysis is still missing. Here, we study the impacts of long-term transgressions of the climate and land system change boundaries on the Earth system using an Earth system model with an incorporated detailed dynamic vegetation model. In our centennial-scale simulation analysis, we find that transgressing the land system change boundary results in increases in global temperatures and aridity. Furthermore, this transgression is associated with a substantial loss of vegetation carbon, exceeding 200 PgC, in contrast to conditions considered safe. Concurrently, the influence of climate change becomes evident as temperatures surge by 2.7–3.1 °C depending on the region. Notably, carbon dynamics are most profoundly affected within the large carbon reservoirs of the boreal permafrost areas, where carbon emissions peak at 150 PgC. While a restoration scenario to reduce human pressure to meet the planetary boundaries of climate change and land system change proves beneficial for carbon pools and global mean temperature, a transgression of these boundaries could lead to profoundly negative effects on the Earth system and the terrestrial biosphere. Our results suggest that respecting both boundaries is essential for safeguarding Holocene-like planetary conditions that characterize a resilient Earth system and are in accordance with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2024-03-052024-04-252024-04-25
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 17
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: POEM
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
Working Group: Ecosystems in Transition
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-467-2024
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth System Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 15 (2) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 467 - 483 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1402282
Publisher: Copernicus