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Journal Article

The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere-land interactions

Authors
/persons/resource/markus.drueke

Drüke,  Markus
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Wolfgang.Lucht

Lucht,  Wolfgang
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Werner.von.Bloh

von Bloh,  Werner
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/petri

Petri,  Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Boris.Sakschewski

Sakschewski,  Boris
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Arne.Tobian

Tobian,  Arne
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/sina.loriani

Loriani,  Sina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Sibyll.Schaphoff

Schaphoff,  Sibyll
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Georg.Feulner

Feulner,  Georg
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Kirsten.Thonicke

Thonicke,  Kirsten
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10830068
(Supplementary material)

Fulltext (public)

29696oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 7MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Drüke, M., Lucht, W., von Bloh, W., Petri, S., Sakschewski, B., Tobian, A., Loriani, S., Schaphoff, S., Feulner, G., Thonicke, K. (2024): The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere-land interactions. - Earth System Dynamics, 15, 2, 467-483.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29696
Abstract
Human activities have had a significant impact on Earth's systems and processes, leading to a transition of Earth's state from the relatively stable Holocene epoch to the Anthropocene. The planetary boundaries framework characterizes major risks of destabilization, particularly in the core dimensions of climate and biosphere change. Land system change, including deforestation and urbanization, alters ecosystems and impacts the water and energy cycle between land surface and atmosphere, while climate change can disrupt the balance of ecosystems and impact vegetation composition and soil carbon pools. These drivers also interact with each other, further exacerbating their impacts. Earth system models have been used recently to illustrate the risks and interacting effects of transgressing selected planetary boundaries, but a detailed analysis is still missing. Here, we study the impacts of long-term transgressions of the climate and land system change boundaries on the Earth system using an Earth system model with an incorporated detailed dynamic vegetation model. In our centennial-scale simulation analysis, we find that transgressing the land system change boundary results in increases in global temperatures and aridity. Furthermore, this transgression is associated with a substantial loss of vegetation carbon, exceeding 200 PgC, in contrast to conditions considered safe. Concurrently, the influence of climate change becomes evident as temperatures surge by 2.7–3.1 °C depending on the region. Notably, carbon dynamics are most profoundly affected within the large carbon reservoirs of the boreal permafrost areas, where carbon emissions peak at 150 PgC. While a restoration scenario to reduce human pressure to meet the planetary boundaries of climate change and land system change proves beneficial for carbon pools and global mean temperature, a transgression of these boundaries could lead to profoundly negative effects on the Earth system and the terrestrial biosphere. Our results suggest that respecting both boundaries is essential for safeguarding Holocene-like planetary conditions that characterize a resilient Earth system and are in accordance with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.