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  From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system

Schreyer, F., Ueckerdt, F., Pietzcker, R. C., Odenweller, A., Merfort, A., Rodrigues, R., Strefler, J., Lécuyer, F., Luderer, G. (2025): From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system. - Nature Communications, 16, 10700.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66682-z

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblCreators???:
Schreyer, Felix1, 2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Ueckerdt, Falko1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Odenweller, Adrian1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Merfort, Anne1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Rodrigues, Renato1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Strefler, Jessica1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Lécuyer, Fabrice1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Luderer, Gunnar1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_29970              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: The EU climate neutrality goal requires a strong reduction in fossil fuel use. However, whether a complete phase-out is feasible and desirable remains unclear. Using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the additional effort needed to achieve a nearly complete EU-wide phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050 compared to a least-cost net-zero scenario. We show that in the least-cost scenario fossil fuel consumption already decreases by 90% from 2020 to 2050 and is compensated by renewable power, direct electrification, as well as some hydrogen and biofuels. However, hard-to-replace oil-based hydrocarbons and natural gas persist primarily in the chemical industry, aviation and shipping. Phasing them out requires the large-scale deployment of costly carbon-neutral e-fuels, which substantially increases marginal abatement costs from 460 EUR to 630 EUR tCO2-1 (500-1000 EUR tCO2-1). Our works shows the additional transformation challenges if the EU aims to strengthen its climate policy commitment with a full fossil phase-out target.

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???ViewItemFull_lblLanguages???: eng - English
 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2024-12-172025-11-122025-12-102025-12-10
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.1038/s41467-025-66682-z
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
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???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_REGIONALK???: Europe
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Energy
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Decarbonization
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: Lab - Energy Transition
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Nature Communications
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