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Journal Article

Anthropogenic influence on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Asia

Authors
/persons/resource/Fallah

Fallah,  Bijan H.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Russo,  Emmanuele
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Menz

Menz,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/peterh

Hoffmann,  Peter
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/didovets

Didovets,  Iulii
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Fred.Hattermann

Hattermann,  Fred Fokko
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7063876
(Supplementary material)

Fulltext (public)

s41598-023-33921-6.pdf
(Publisher version), 9MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Fallah, B. H., Russo, E., Menz, C., Hoffmann, P., Didovets, I., Hattermann, F. F. (2023): Anthropogenic influence on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Asia. - Scientific Reports, 13, 6854.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-33921-6


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28370
Abstract
We investigate the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the extreme temperature and precipitation events in Central Asia (CA) during the last 60 years. We bias-adjust and downscale two Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) ensemble outputs, with natural (labelled as hist-nat, driven only by solar and volcanic forcing) and natural plus anthropogenic forcing (labelled as hist, driven by all-forcings), to 0.25∘×0.25∘ spatial resolution. Each ensemble contains six models from ISIMIP, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The presented downscaling methodology is necessary to create a reliable climate state for regional climate impact studies. Our analysis shows a higher risk of extreme heat events (factor 4 in signal-to-noise ratio) over large parts of CA due to anthropogenic influence. Furthermore, a higher likelihood of extreme precipitation over CA, especially over Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, can be attributed to anthropogenic forcing (over 100% changes in intensity and 20% in frequency). Given that these regions show a high risk of rainfall-triggered landslides and floods during historical times, we report that human-induced climate warming can contribute to extreme precipitation events over vulnerable areas of CA. Our high-resolution data set can be used in impact studies focusing on the attribution of extreme events in CA and is freely available to the scientific community.