Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the 
Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, L.; Denvil, S.; Emanuel, K.; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, K.; Hurtt, G.; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, D.; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, R.; Stevanović, Miodrag; Suzuki, T.; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, E.; Ciais, P.; Ebi, K.; Eddy, T. D.; Elliott, J.; Galbraith, E.; Gosling, S. N.; Hattermann, Fred Fokko; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, J.; Hof, C.; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, R.; Müller Schmied, H.; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, D.; Tittensor, D. P.; Vautard, R.; Vliet, M. van; Biber, M. F.; Betts, R. A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, D.; Frolking, S.; Jones, C. D.; Lotze, H. K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, R.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, H.; Yamagata, Y.

doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

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Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Authors

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler, Katja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/slange

Lange, Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/franziska.piontek

Piontek, Franziska
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe, Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/lila.warszawski

Warszawski, Lila
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/fangzhao

Zhao, Fang
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Chini, L.
External Organizations;

Denvil, S.
External Organizations;

Emanuel, K.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/geiger

Geiger, Tobias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Halladay, K.
External Organizations;

Hurtt, G.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/matthias.mengel

Mengel, Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Murakami, D.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sebastian.ostberg

Ostberg, Sebastian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Riva, R.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/stevanovic

Stevanović, Miodrag
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Suzuki, T.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Jan.Volkholz

Volkholz, Jan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Burke, E.
External Organizations;

Ciais, P.
External Organizations;

Ebi, K.
External Organizations;

Eddy, T. D.
External Organizations;

Elliott, J.
External Organizations;

Galbraith, E.
External Organizations;

Gosling, S. N.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Fred.Hattermann

Hattermann, Fred Fokko
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Hickler, T.
External Organizations;

Hinkel, J.
External Organizations;

Hof, C.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/veronika.huber

Huber, Veronika
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/jonasjae

Jägermeyr, Jonas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Valentina.Krysanova

Krysanova, Valentina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Marcé, R.
External Organizations;

Müller Schmied, H.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/ioanna.mouratiadou

Mouratiadou, Ioanna
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Pierson, D.
External Organizations;

Tittensor, D. P.
External Organizations;

Vautard, R.
External Organizations;

Vliet, M. van
External Organizations;

Biber, M. F.
External Organizations;

Betts, R. A.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Deryng, D.
External Organizations;

Frolking, S.
External Organizations;

Jones, C. D.
External Organizations;

Lotze, H. K.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Sahajpal, R.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Kirsten.Thonicke

Thonicke, Kirsten
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Tian, H.
External Organizations;

Yamagata, Y.
External Organizations;

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Citation

Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., Zhao, F., Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, M., Murakami, D., Ostberg, S., Popp, A., Riva, R., Stevanović, M., Suzuki, T., Volkholz, J., Burke, E., Ciais, P., Ebi, K., Eddy, T. D., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S. N., Hattermann, F. F., Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Hof, C., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Krysanova, V., Marcé, R., Müller Schmied, H., Mouratiadou, I., Pierson, D., Tittensor, D. P., Vautard, R., Vliet, M. v., Biber, M. F., Betts, R. A., Bodirsky, B. L., Deryng, D., Frolking, S., Jones, C. D., Lotze, H. K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sahajpal, R., Thonicke, K., Tian, H., Yamagata, Y. (2017): Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). - Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 12, 4321-4345.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21985

Abstract

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).